:covid_19: đŸ˜· đŸ„ Corona Virus the thread for all your fears ❓

Fuck me, they must be tiny.

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https://twitter.com/JonesCitizen/status/1242928931474411525?s=20

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Number of cases up 1280 to 9357. edit: went up 1542 yesterday, so drop in rate of cases too.

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I love Randy Rainbow.

Let’s not get too excited about the lower than logarithmic jump in infections today.

  1. UK only runs 5,000 tests a day
  2. Sunshine kills the Virus quicker
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It’s my view that a lot of people are going to have a good hard look at how they’ve been treated by their employers, and whether they want new ones.

I am sure I am not alone in being able to recount tales of shabby treatment of employees by employers.

It’s not just that though; it’s the entire system. One of the best quotes I’ve heard is that “a crisis tells you what’s already broken”

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I confidently predict that Sunday’s figure will show a decrease of 4.16666666%. :crossed_fingers::+1::+1:

I have to admit that I am confused as to why they even publish a ‘confirmed cases’ figure as this is only relative to the number of tests carried out. Therefore the exact same number of tests would be needed everyday and given at random across the population for this to be an indicator the actual infection rate.

What it tells us is simply that there are more with symptoms that have given them concern so they have contacted 111, and been selected for a test, which is expected at this stage.

A better marker for the epidemiology would be the hospitalization rate OVER And ABOVE the normal expected rate for respiratory infection

As mentioned before, approx 1880 people mostly over 70 die each week from complications due to or from Respiratory disease. I don’t know how many are hospitalizaed but that is a population that is highly vulnerable to this virus and very likely to need specialist care if they get it.

But even the death rate will depend on the time window you are looking at.

Its clear this virus is hugely accelerating the death of vulnerable people, when you look at Italy and a 6-8 week window, but if we look at the figures in 12 months over a 12 month window, how many more deaths will there have been in this group thank those expected over a longer time frame?

This appears to be a bastard of a virus because it’s so easily transmitted and accelerated death in those with potential vulnerabilities
 the ONLY way to reduce its impact is the isolation model, and ensuring all who need it get access to the care they need
 but we can’t keep ‘spare capacity’ within a healthcare system so do we manage that?

I think when this does slow down and we return to a new normal, we may well find there are large warehouse like centres left set up for the inevitable outbreaks
 until the vaccine is sorted.

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Thought I would give that Joe Wicks HIIT stuff a go this morning

Christ he is an annoying sod

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Just been doing it with the kids in the school.

They hate it.

LOL.

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My gut reaction is to end my future boycott because the draw of cheap beer is too much for me.

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Interesting stats from the models that show what can happen if not everyone complies.

A new University of Sydney study modeled the spread of COVID-19 across Australia and quantified the direct relationship between the duration of these acute social distancing measures and the percentage of the population that abides by the rules.

“If we want to control the spread of COVID-19 – rather than letting the disease control us – at least 80 percent of the Australian population must comply with strict social distancing measures for at least four months,” explains study lead on the new modeling, Mikhail Prokopenko. "However, if 90 percent of the population complies, then the duration could be as short as 13 to 14 weeks – meaning if we began tomorrow we could expect a control of COVID-19 by July.”

Perhaps the most striking finding in the study is the revelation that if less than 70 percent of the population comply with social distancing practices, the pandemic cannot be suppressed. Prokopenko suggests any social distancing practices would be “fruitless” if not adopted by a large enough volume of people

Looks like Dave at No 63 wasn’t panic buying last week.

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It seems cheap when you’re guzzling it but trust me, the price in the long run is very high indeed.

He’s doing it wrong, I think the water is coming out of his mouth.

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Interesting to read the whole thread not the headline :slight_smile:

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Meanwhile 
 back to 3rd world problems - what’s everyone planning to do with their hair during the lock down ? I’m normally a short back and sides man myself but the added hair length is doing nothing for my good looks right now. Contemplating the buzz cut but Mrs SCD is not happy at all. @SimplySaint is in denial - his barnet is some kind of weird creation that comprises shaving, parting shaving, blends, fades and all sorts of hair products. It will come to him too.

So (unless you’re folically challenged), what’s your plan ? Photos will be required in due course 


SCD

I have my clippers that I have set on a grade 4, I will be using them soon as my barnet is getting a bit unruly.

At some point, when all this is over, I will be visiting my hairdresser friend for a proper tidy up.

Or I may just grow my hair long and have a ponytail to reflect that I am an ageing computer programmer nerd


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Wonder how altruistic Dyson is being, will he sell them “at cost” until the crisis is over