She had a justified moan about me singing along to Avenged Sevenfold in the adjacent room, but that is fair enough. She was on the phone to a customer at the time
He might have a better chance than that
Dr Tim Crocker-BuquƩ, Clinical Epidemiologist, LSHTM, said:
āTo say that the mortality rate of ICU patients is 50% is misleading and may induce panic.
āMore accurately it shows that of the 21% of those patients who have left critical care, 48% of them had died. However, it excludes the 79% patients who do not have an outcome yet. Importantly, this is not a mortality rate, as described in some media reports, which is a complicated statistic to calculate and requires calculation based on a pre-specified population.
āThe crude death rate could be calculated, but this still has to be related to an underlying population. So this would be 48% of all the people who have left critical care, but would be 10.2% of all the people who have been admitted to critical care since the start of the outbreak. Overall the population of patients with an outcome (n=165) is too small at the moment, and unlikely to be representative of all the patients admitted to critical care.
āOf note, these are very early data, so the patients who have already died have had very short stays in critical care (3-4 days), suggesting they may have deteriorated much quicker than other patients and so are unlikely to be representative and may be reflecting a higher risk of death in this early group that died.ā
I was going on Mrs Gās estimate rather than solid data so fair enough. Not sure what the mortality rate of intubated patients is but Mrs Gās estimate is if you end up intubated, chances are youāre fucked.
We have no idea of how ill he actually is, his move to ICU may be more about his job than his condition.
But letās not forget that when the ball is dead, we are aliveā¦which in politics means that EVERYTHING is an opportunity.
If Cummingsā puppet pulls through this, and I hope he does, the headlines will write themselves.
Battling Boris fights off the virus etc, rises from his deathbed to defeat the enemy - it will be his finest hour, a strong leader who defied the grim reaper himself, stood on the steps of the hospital, defiant.
Yes itās inappropriate to think like that if he is really ill, but itās their job, and if you find that offensive, you clearly donāt understand Cummings and friends.
Does anyone think the cabinet around him are thinking of anything but their own chances of taking over?
He is clearly unwell, but sadly the game is still being played, and big headlines are being prepared.
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Just had a mate, who is not generally a conspiracy theorist, text me asking if I thought Johnson was really ill.
I guess behind his question was the logic in the rest of your post - much to be gained from being seen to āwin the warā.
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ā¦so has anything been seen or heard from Cummings since he was seen running away from Downing Street?
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Thatās a very courageous opinion.
Somewhat tasteless too.
Seems rather gratuitous for someone with a thumping majority in Parliament.
If you want to be a grown up conspiracy theorist you need to ask, and answer cui bono. Iām not seeing what extra gains are gathered from this.
If anything, Iāve seen the reverse - the government downplaying his symptoms throughout. Maybe thatās a big part of the plan, eh?
RB makes a valid point. All balls are in play hereā¦
Luckily we have evidence that does make that unlikely - the look of terror on Cummings face as he ran away- hopefully to never be seen again.
Equally. I can see how anyone who could, would WANT to run away from a bunker lockdown.
Pretty sure Iād leg it from work if I found out 3 people at the top had become Ill, and Iād be wondering 1. How to get home 2. Did I have enough supplies/Paracetamol for 2 weeks.
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For what reason though?
What sea change of policy are we about to experience from this?
What boon are these hypothetical plotters getting out of it?
The government doesnāt look any smarter. If anything, Borisā hospitalisation is an embarrassment, a clear case of ādo as I say, not as I doā made manifest in such a worrying way.
Canāt help but recall Boris early on saying he was still shaking hands etc etc. Not only is he now very ill but who the fuck else might he have infected, possibly fatally?
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He did, and that is why it is so embarrassing for him to be in the position heās in. He failed to do what heād asked of the public.
I think heās failed to take his own illness seriously. Apparently still running the government from isolation, only relinquishing his own authority after he was moved into ICU. Despite all the messaging to not treat this as flu, in his own actions heās treated it even less seriously. No-one with a serious bout of flu would attempt to run the country.
Now whether this was bollocks (him running the country or not) doesnāt really matter. Thatās the message that went out to the public, and on the basis of that message, Boris doesnāt seem to have treated the illness with the personal gravity it deserved.
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From what I read this morning he has being doing 15 hr days since this started and if he has been doing that whilst isolated then he isnāt really giving his body a chance to get to grips with the illness
I wouldnāt be surprised if part of the reason to stick him in ICU is to save him from himself
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After the Scottush CMO PR disaster, was pretty clear Elites played a different game.
Here in Poland games are afoot. Presidential election due in May. Economic disaster and aid needed.
Which is the only issue of the day?
The election.
PiS ruling party trying to delay it a year or two then going for a postal only vote in 3 weeks time.
Meanwhile no funds reaching anybody.
Indeed, if you have any respiratory tract infection, the big factor in recovery is serious rest ā¦ not stress and 15 hour days. ā¦ that leads to pneumonia ā¦ I wish him a speedy recovery.
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Oh, this is much better.
A far better starting point for conspiracy theories
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Equally, Male bloody mindedness should be taken out the equation.
The whole dont make a fuss thing.
Lost a friend to bloody mindedness Pneumonia.
Equally, I had a chest infection in the sandpit, was told not to bother the Doc, went anyway & he said I had done the right thing, diagnosed very early stage straight on antibiotics and no damage done.
I lost my cousin to pneumonia, she was 48, she was a care worker too, didnāt want to bother the doctorsā¦
Back to BoJo, I said somewhere else that he was showing Churchillian traits, battling through the illness whilst still running the country. I can see the BAU stance to rest the minds of the plebiscite but equally he is the leader of the country and should have been in hospital sooner.
John Major had time off running the country with flu.
Maybe Boris doesnāt trust his chain of command to do things as he wants 
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Gove self-isolating too now.
Sounded symptomatic on R4ās Today Programme
Stark.