Yes to both.
Following betting odds are far more reliable than polls, although you do have to ignore the massively skewed starting position.
That said, please remember i bet on Saints winning every game so probably best not to put your house on itš
Firstly, I fully expect the Tories to win a majority, for us to leave the EU, then end up without a comprehensive free trade agreement and for election commitments to be rowed back on due to unfavourable economic circumstances.
The polls make it look like that scenario is nailed on, but a Tory majority and the Tories being the largest single party are different things.
Having the Tories as the largest party is not that damaging as long as a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement can be reached amongst the other Westminster parties.
This tweet shows what is needed in a FPTP system to achieve that outcome.
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That figure caught my eye and i couldnāt remember why.
Reading the thread, it was the same figure that put Johnson in office.
Letās hope it does the opposite this time.
Looking forward to the release of the fully costed tory manifesto which confirms in detail Johnsonās plan to eradicate in work poverty, homelessness, increasing wealth inequality etc.
By taking no deal off the table, which to many, is the only true form of Brexit, Corbyn has already taken sides.
The general public realise that even if individuals donāt.
You havenāt noticed the changed view of the general public over the years?
Most are sick of it now and have a greater understanding of the lies theyāve been told.
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You mean, have I projected my own opinions or wishes as the consensus?
No. In fact, my opinion is in conflict with my wish. Iād like a Labour government. My opinion is that wonāt happen because theyāre going against the wishes of 408 constituencies, including most of their target seats.
Another opinion I hold is that the pro-EU shadow cabinet members know this stance is electorally disastrous. Theyāre prepared to subject the public to more Tory rule as long as they get minority control of their party back.
So childish, but there are considerations you are deliberately ignoring and things you just make up.
Peopleās views change and no one ever offered a no deal crash out as an option(no matter how many times you say it). There is evidence of all of them championing a deal(very easy by all accounts 
).
As for your wishes, a labour government doesnāt trump leaving, so no, your wish is leaving, anything else is a side note.
Iām simply pointing out the danger inherent in echo chambers, especially as compared to the reality of actual elections.
During the European Elections, people were offered two explicit no deal options to get behind. One of those was UKIP, which got a tiny fraction of the vote.
The other was The Brexit Party. Between them, they got around 36% of the vote, the vast vast majority of no deal voters going for The Brexit Party, the non-racist articulation of the no deal position.
So letās not pretend that people have never been offered no deal, and have never voted for no deal. Itās over a third of those that could be bothered to vote in the MEP elections, and while turnout was a lot lower, if you can project that into overall dissatisfaction with Labourās position, explicitly denying it, the party is in big trouble.
I really donāt think the Labour position is nonsense. But then Iām comfortable with either of the two options that they are offering.
I thought the Labour position was dodgy before Corbyn declared neutrality because it now says that he is āhappyā to remain.
I do, however, agree that it is still nuanced and that anyone that wants a hard Brexit would not vote for Labour.
Assume you saw the Manifesto? Itās an incredibly transformational set of policies for voters - of which the Brexit position is but one tenet.
Leaving the EU with a free trade deal (or remaining) underpins the finances behind some of those extraordinary powerful manifesto policies.
Labour believes that you canāt have the transformational Labour policies without the financial stability of a close relationship with the EU.
Iām really comfortable with Corbynās neutrality. It says, for the first time, that Corbyn is happy to remain.
I also really love the logic that is being used to describe why he is taking that position - that the country is fractured and as an honest broker he will implement the result of the next referendum without interference.
The danger of the Brexit schism and healing the divide through compromise is something that really resonates with me.
I do see that by not declaring which side a Labour government will campaign on leave them open to criticism, but stating which side they would campaign on would never win over someone that wants a hard Brexit anyway.
With Labour, a hard Brexit is no longer on the table.
I can also completely understand that you a) donāt think Corbynās leave option will be credible (I can see this point of view) and b) resent the fact that there would be no āleave without a dealā option.
But whether we like it or not, this election has become a Brexit referendum by proxy. So you do have an alternative choice if Brexit is the most important issue to you.
We get another chance to elect politicians that will either revoke, leave and aim for a deal, leave without a deal or give the people the choice to remain or leave in a soft way.
Surely there is a choice there for you?
Itās obvious that the Labour party no longer gives you the option you want. But that doesnāt mean their position is nonsense.
If Brexit is the most important issue to a voter and they want to leave without a deal, then Iād advise them to vote Brexit Party (if they are standing in their constituency) or perhaps Tory - as I feel this may lead to a hard(ish) Brexit.
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Decent unravelling of the Tories plans and Gove personally by Andrew Marr this morning.
Good to see some calling out of the spin.
I desperately hope Iām wrong, and I completely agree with you on the domestic policy front, which is why Iām so fucking angry that none of it comes to fruition.
The election is going to be a clash of stories. My worry going in was that the Conservatives would have the best yarns, with some justification. The Benn Act provided all of that, first by showing Parliament to be obstructive, was only confirmed when it refused a general election, after many of its most prominent contributors, including Corbyn, had been demanding one for a year.
Those are easy stories to sell. āDither and delayā, āHypocriteā and āChickenā.
The heartening thing about the campaign is the sheer number of Johnson own goals. In many ways, he is coming over as less substantive than May. She at least tried to croak out a response. He seems completely hamstrung by simple queries.
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A few things that would transform Labourās chances (or more accurately reduce the Toriesā chances) would be
- that the youth vote turnout is higher than expected (and the older vote reduces)
- Swinson and Corbyn get their act together to endorse each othersā candidates tactically.
- Labourās position on the WASPI issue resonates with the older female voter (3.9m people)
Not holding my breath but where thereās hope and as you say, surely there is a point when Borisās ineptitude finally becomes visible to his base.
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For me they need to do one thing that they can do easily.
Make their confirmatory vote a run-off between Remain, their deal and no deal. Just putting that on the table in a different question satisfies democracy. Iād rather Remain not be on the ballot at all, given that it was already decided, but as a different, three-way question, I could live with it, even with Remain on the ballot.
As it is theyāve just stuck two fingers up to many people that would normally vote for them.
This clip shows the editing that the BBC carried out.
They basically edited out the cynical laugh from the audience when Johnson said he believed the truth was important, and instead went to a clip of Johnson appearing to get warm applause when in fact the applause was the audience applauding itself for its cynical reaction to Johnson.
Another production error?
https://twitter.com/abandonnuance/status/1198429453325651969?s=20
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Hereās the BBC edited clip of Johnsonās manifesto launch.
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Heās certainly a talented orator:
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Fear not. Hew Edwards has come out with a robust defence when questioned.