Thereâs history of this happening(always one way).
Search Billy Mitchell question time.
He even went into the green room to chat to other right wing freaks.
Blatant
Bias
Crap
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Billy Mitchell from EastEnders?
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Right so a lot of political discussion at dinner with the Tory voting âin lawsâ.
So weirdly they agree with a lot of the Labour manifesto! There was even a âmaybe I should vote labourâ. Thankfully I was sat down. They donât think he is anti-semitic either. They really really donât like Johnson (one of them knew Stanley) and we are just telling them about their fact check twitter and their labour manifesto website and they say that was appalling.
I doubt theyâll actually vote in his election but that is 2 elderly Tory voters who theyâve lost.
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The manifesto is going down pretty well and Corbyn looks like the only adult in the room on tv.
Frankly, anyone who looks at Johnsonâs mumbling truth-struck car crash performances, ponders the tories terrible record since 2010 or listens to the coke addled, deluded ramblings of umpteen inept cabinet ministers and still votes Conservative is beyond help.
The more disillusioned traditional tory voters who feel compelled to (at least) abstain, the better.
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Latest poll doesnât look too healthy for Labour
Conservatives open up 19-point lead with 47% share of the vote
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I want more detail. How many polled and the demographic. If there was anything I learned in my masters course was to question data.
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I honestly donât know how it will break down. Labourâs Brexit position is a nonsense given the partyâs aversion to no deal and a good deal of the Shadow Cabinet saying theyâd campaign to remain.
If no deal were on the ballot of this hypothetical referendum, done as a run-off, I think that is a compromise people could have lived with.
Corbyn is unfortunately not neutral. By taking no deal off the table, he has taken a stand, and pretty much defined what his neutrality is. Neutral in a choice between Remain and a form of Remain.
Itâs really not going to go down well.
Tory remain voters in this house donât mind his stance. Weird old world.
I still want more detail on polls.
The best part of 3 weeks to go, the Media will become ever more hysterical as we go on. The BBC are a lost cause, they are batting for the Tories. There isnât even a pretence any more that they will abide by the rules of impartiality during the campaign. After Johnson was captured laying the wreath upside down on Remembrance Sunday, dishevelled, clearly suffering from the hangover from hell, they dumped that footage in itâs news bulletins and used film from three years before when he was Foreign Secretary. This weekend on their news bulletins, reporting on the Question Time leaders debate, they have edited out the derisive laughter with which Johnson was met when he replied to the question about trust in British politics. They, and the rest of the MSM are reporting that after the debate there has been a surge of support for Johnson and the Conservatives, and Corbynâs personal approval rate has âplumbed new depthsâ. It does smack of desperation. Where is the Conservative manifesto, do they have one? Why arenât the BBC and the rest of the media asking this question? Here you have the Prime Minister, taking part in debates when they havenât even told the country what their plans are, and they get a free ride, not even mentioned. Can it really be true that people watched that debate last night, watched Johnsonâs car crash, lying, bullshitting performance versus Corbynâs measured, honest performance and prefer Johnson? Are people mad? Was Einstein right, âOnly two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and iâm not sure about the formerâ? God help us if that is the case.
And pap, Labourâs position is not a nonsense, given where we are today after three years of absolute chaos, the country divided down the middle, knowing what we know now about the lies that were told by the Leave campaign and what the reality of a no deal Brexit would really mean. In the real world Jeremy Corbynâs position places him as the only adult in the room. The only people now who think that a no deal crash out from the EU would be a good thing are the extreme right wing zealots and multi millionaire disaster capitalists and, yes, letâs stop beating about the bush, the racists. And sadly it would appear, you. There will be absolutely no benefit for the overwhelming majority of people who are not any of the above. Respect the referendum result by all means, but stop pretending that people voted for a no deal Brexit. They narrowly voted for an orderly withdrawal from the EU, with the best deal in history, the rest of the world queuing up to throw money at us with amazing new deals. All of which has been shown to be complete fantasy. Time to get real.
This general election is not just about Brexit, despite attempts by the compulsive liar Boris Johnson and the corrupt, fabulously wealthy extreme right wing globalists who are backing him to try and persuade us otherwise. Plus again, it would appear, you. If Johnson and his cabal are allowed free reign for the next five years this country will be unrecognizable. Look at the state it is in now, the poverty,the homeless sleeping on the streets, NHS in crisis, food banks in every town, break down of law and order, gangs of have nots stabbing each other etc, and multiply it by ten. Because that is what will be down for us. There is only one alternative to this, a Labour government, that is the reality. There was a time, not so long ago when you would have been pointing this out on here yourself, passionately and eloquently, but not any more. You are consumed by Brexit, to the exclusion of everything else. Maybe you donât realise it but your position is clearly that you will prefer a right wing Boris Johnson led government to run this country for the next five years, with all the misery that will bring to the people you once championed so passionately, to a Labour government, led by a decent, principled man who, again, you used to champion so passionately, with policies which will benefit the overwhelming majority of people who have borne the brunt of the past ten years of austerity. Because Johnson and co will deliver your holy grail of Brexit. I know you took issue with me when i likened your position on Brexit to a religious experience, but it is difficult to see it any other way. Sadly.
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Here you go.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/VI-20-11-19-website.xlsx
A few people are talking about it on Craig Murrayâs site(latest article, near the bottom of page 4 in the comments). Turns out it was done over 3 days and before the debate, which would also at least partially negate the bounce of the manifesto. I wouldnât trust Opinium, canât remember what, but i know iâve read about them before and they are dodgy with their questions/manipulation of figures.
The accuracy of polling companies is largely determined, not by asking people how they would vote, but by the methodology they use to determine who wonât bother / be able to vote. The easy part is asking people how they will vote.
I saw some stuff on Twitter earlier in the campaign where, for one polling company, the percentages of likely turnout across age categories was revealed and compared with actual turnout in 2017. The model they used this year predicted a significantly lower turnout in 2019. Iâll see if I can find it.
If the other polling companies are using a similar model it would explain some of the strange polling data.
Hereâs the BBC edited clip you referred to @Nottarf-KrapâŠ
https://twitter.com/CorbynistaTeen/status/1198265220516524035?s=19
Hereâs that turnout prediction I was referring to from polling organisation Kantar.
Caveat it is supplied by a v pro Corbyn randomâŠ
https://twitter.com/NuPopulism/status/1195845942240514049?s=09
That last poll I refer to aside, are those arguing that the polls are wrong or fixed, suggesting that Labour will win the election?
Iâm just a naive bellend, but I also thought that the Guardian was a labour supporting paper. Certainly when I read it it seems to be heavily in favour of Labour and quick to have a pop at the Tories. Why would they run with this falsified poll?
The Guardian fell out of love with Labour about the time it became a Labour party again.
But, no, Iâm not suggesting the polls are fixed en mass. Iâm saying that itâs not as much of a science as we might believe and some of the assumptions they are making about turnout across age groups might be wrong.
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Have you seen the registration figures for under 44s?
The great bulk of them fall into the youngest two groups and last time i looked it was just over 2 million.
How much of difference thatâll make i donât know, but itâs a good sign, if only for the raised awareness.
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Also, Lewis Goodall, no relation, points out the other things that might make the pollstersâ prophecies look wrong.
Labourâs position is absolute nonsense when any kind of scrutiny is applied. First off, walking into any set of negotiations without being prepared to walk away is something no trade union negotiator would do, because he or she would know that instantly weakens the bargaining position. Please tell me how doing that on behalf of an entire country is credible.
Theresa May tried to make the last election all about Brexit, and failed miserably. I would argue that Johnson is doing a better job of keeping it on ground he can actually compete on. Back in 2017, the vote had just happened, and importantly, both big parties were committed to upholding the result.
Look at Labourâs stance now. Corbyn claiming to be neutral between a couple of rigged options that donât actually include Brexit.
You can list your disaster capitalists, your extreme right wing zealots and whomever else it is you think might make the Remain case more palatable.
Iâd argue that youâre predictions would be much more accurate if you looked at the Brexit vote, see where it landed, how often it landed and in which target seats it landed. The majority of constituencies voted Leave. The majority of Labourâs target seats voted Leave. Around 36% of people specifically went for a no deal Brexit in the European elections.
These people cannot be ignored, and there are substantially more of them than there are Jacob Rees Mogg.
Youâve proved the last sentence of @Notarf-Krap correct at leastđ
Itâs been a long time since that marginal win. Peopleâs views have changed and some have died(700,000) to be replaced by an even larger number of 18 year olds(how do you think theyâll vote?).
Corbyns position is the best position to take. You donât solve a divide by taking a side. Give it a week and ask people what they think. You might be surprised.