Tory remain voters in this house donāt mind his stance. Weird old world.
I still want more detail on polls.
The best part of 3 weeks to go, the Media will become ever more hysterical as we go on. The BBC are a lost cause, they are batting for the Tories. There isnāt even a pretence any more that they will abide by the rules of impartiality during the campaign. After Johnson was captured laying the wreath upside down on Remembrance Sunday, dishevelled, clearly suffering from the hangover from hell, they dumped that footage in itās news bulletins and used film from three years before when he was Foreign Secretary. This weekend on their news bulletins, reporting on the Question Time leaders debate, they have edited out the derisive laughter with which Johnson was met when he replied to the question about trust in British politics. They, and the rest of the MSM are reporting that after the debate there has been a surge of support for Johnson and the Conservatives, and Corbynās personal approval rate has āplumbed new depthsā. It does smack of desperation. Where is the Conservative manifesto, do they have one? Why arenāt the BBC and the rest of the media asking this question? Here you have the Prime Minister, taking part in debates when they havenāt even told the country what their plans are, and they get a free ride, not even mentioned. Can it really be true that people watched that debate last night, watched Johnsonās car crash, lying, bullshitting performance versus Corbynās measured, honest performance and prefer Johnson? Are people mad? Was Einstein right, āOnly two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and iām not sure about the formerā? God help us if that is the case.
And pap, Labourās position is not a nonsense, given where we are today after three years of absolute chaos, the country divided down the middle, knowing what we know now about the lies that were told by the Leave campaign and what the reality of a no deal Brexit would really mean. In the real world Jeremy Corbynās position places him as the only adult in the room. The only people now who think that a no deal crash out from the EU would be a good thing are the extreme right wing zealots and multi millionaire disaster capitalists and, yes, letās stop beating about the bush, the racists. And sadly it would appear, you. There will be absolutely no benefit for the overwhelming majority of people who are not any of the above. Respect the referendum result by all means, but stop pretending that people voted for a no deal Brexit. They narrowly voted for an orderly withdrawal from the EU, with the best deal in history, the rest of the world queuing up to throw money at us with amazing new deals. All of which has been shown to be complete fantasy. Time to get real.
This general election is not just about Brexit, despite attempts by the compulsive liar Boris Johnson and the corrupt, fabulously wealthy extreme right wing globalists who are backing him to try and persuade us otherwise. Plus again, it would appear, you. If Johnson and his cabal are allowed free reign for the next five years this country will be unrecognizable. Look at the state it is in now, the poverty,the homeless sleeping on the streets, NHS in crisis, food banks in every town, break down of law and order, gangs of have nots stabbing each other etc, and multiply it by ten. Because that is what will be down for us. There is only one alternative to this, a Labour government, that is the reality. There was a time, not so long ago when you would have been pointing this out on here yourself, passionately and eloquently, but not any more. You are consumed by Brexit, to the exclusion of everything else. Maybe you donāt realise it but your position is clearly that you will prefer a right wing Boris Johnson led government to run this country for the next five years, with all the misery that will bring to the people you once championed so passionately, to a Labour government, led by a decent, principled man who, again, you used to champion so passionately, with policies which will benefit the overwhelming majority of people who have borne the brunt of the past ten years of austerity. Because Johnson and co will deliver your holy grail of Brexit. I know you took issue with me when i likened your position on Brexit to a religious experience, but it is difficult to see it any other way. Sadly.
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Here you go.
https://www.opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/VI-20-11-19-website.xlsx
A few people are talking about it on Craig Murrayās site(latest article, near the bottom of page 4 in the comments). Turns out it was done over 3 days and before the debate, which would also at least partially negate the bounce of the manifesto. I wouldnāt trust Opinium, canāt remember what, but i know iāve read about them before and they are dodgy with their questions/manipulation of figures.
The accuracy of polling companies is largely determined, not by asking people how they would vote, but by the methodology they use to determine who wonāt bother / be able to vote. The easy part is asking people how they will vote.
I saw some stuff on Twitter earlier in the campaign where, for one polling company, the percentages of likely turnout across age categories was revealed and compared with actual turnout in 2017. The model they used this year predicted a significantly lower turnout in 2019. Iāll see if I can find it.
If the other polling companies are using a similar model it would explain some of the strange polling data.
Hereās the BBC edited clip you referred to @Nottarf-Krapā¦
https://twitter.com/CorbynistaTeen/status/1198265220516524035?s=19
Hereās that turnout prediction I was referring to from polling organisation Kantar.
Caveat it is supplied by a v pro Corbyn randomā¦
https://twitter.com/NuPopulism/status/1195845942240514049?s=09
That last poll I refer to aside, are those arguing that the polls are wrong or fixed, suggesting that Labour will win the election?
Iām just a naive bellend, but I also thought that the Guardian was a labour supporting paper. Certainly when I read it it seems to be heavily in favour of Labour and quick to have a pop at the Tories. Why would they run with this falsified poll?
The Guardian fell out of love with Labour about the time it became a Labour party again.
But, no, Iām not suggesting the polls are fixed en mass. Iām saying that itās not as much of a science as we might believe and some of the assumptions they are making about turnout across age groups might be wrong.
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Have you seen the registration figures for under 44s?
The great bulk of them fall into the youngest two groups and last time i looked it was just over 2 million.
How much of difference thatāll make i donāt know, but itās a good sign, if only for the raised awareness.
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Also, Lewis Goodall, no relation, points out the other things that might make the pollstersā prophecies look wrong.
Labourās position is absolute nonsense when any kind of scrutiny is applied. First off, walking into any set of negotiations without being prepared to walk away is something no trade union negotiator would do, because he or she would know that instantly weakens the bargaining position. Please tell me how doing that on behalf of an entire country is credible.
Theresa May tried to make the last election all about Brexit, and failed miserably. I would argue that Johnson is doing a better job of keeping it on ground he can actually compete on. Back in 2017, the vote had just happened, and importantly, both big parties were committed to upholding the result.
Look at Labourās stance now. Corbyn claiming to be neutral between a couple of rigged options that donāt actually include Brexit.
You can list your disaster capitalists, your extreme right wing zealots and whomever else it is you think might make the Remain case more palatable.
Iād argue that youāre predictions would be much more accurate if you looked at the Brexit vote, see where it landed, how often it landed and in which target seats it landed. The majority of constituencies voted Leave. The majority of Labourās target seats voted Leave. Around 36% of people specifically went for a no deal Brexit in the European elections.
These people cannot be ignored, and there are substantially more of them than there are Jacob Rees Mogg.
Youāve proved the last sentence of @Notarf-Krap correct at leastš
Itās been a long time since that marginal win. Peopleās views have changed and some have died(700,000) to be replaced by an even larger number of 18 year olds(how do you think theyāll vote?).
Corbyns position is the best position to take. You donāt solve a divide by taking a side. Give it a week and ask people what they think. You might be surprised.
Yes to both.
Following betting odds are far more reliable than polls, although you do have to ignore the massively skewed starting position.
That said, please remember i bet on Saints winning every game so probably best not to put your house on itš
Firstly, I fully expect the Tories to win a majority, for us to leave the EU, then end up without a comprehensive free trade agreement and for election commitments to be rowed back on due to unfavourable economic circumstances.
The polls make it look like that scenario is nailed on, but a Tory majority and the Tories being the largest single party are different things.
Having the Tories as the largest party is not that damaging as long as a coalition or a confidence and supply arrangement can be reached amongst the other Westminster parties.
This tweet shows what is needed in a FPTP system to achieve that outcome.
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That figure caught my eye and i couldnāt remember why.
Reading the thread, it was the same figure that put Johnson in office.
Letās hope it does the opposite this time.
Looking forward to the release of the fully costed tory manifesto which confirms in detail Johnsonās plan to eradicate in work poverty, homelessness, increasing wealth inequality etc.
By taking no deal off the table, which to many, is the only true form of Brexit, Corbyn has already taken sides.
The general public realise that even if individuals donāt.
You havenāt noticed the changed view of the general public over the years?
Most are sick of it now and have a greater understanding of the lies theyāve been told.
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You mean, have I projected my own opinions or wishes as the consensus?
No. In fact, my opinion is in conflict with my wish. Iād like a Labour government. My opinion is that wonāt happen because theyāre going against the wishes of 408 constituencies, including most of their target seats.
Another opinion I hold is that the pro-EU shadow cabinet members know this stance is electorally disastrous. Theyāre prepared to subject the public to more Tory rule as long as they get minority control of their party back.
So childish, but there are considerations you are deliberately ignoring and things you just make up.
Peopleās views change and no one ever offered a no deal crash out as an option(no matter how many times you say it). There is evidence of all of them championing a deal(very easy by all accounts 
).
As for your wishes, a labour government doesnāt trump leaving, so no, your wish is leaving, anything else is a side note.