Indeed, but even if the west pays Russia in roubles that wonât save their economy, they need western goods within Russia to keep the money exchange flowing, how will they pay their debts?
People still need to buy roubles if they want to buy fro Russia. Theyâll be getting hard international currency for that. Then they can simply use one of the money transfer systems that isnât Swift. You might have a point if there were global sanctions, but itâs mostly the West, which accounts for about of the tenth of the worldâs population.
And as weâve seen so far with the ongoing sales, pragmatism will trump principles.
The west has most of things Russia wants, sure they can get India money for selling some cheap oil, but what about the Russian middle classes wanting Prada when they go to their dachas and have a summer party? When Russia was frozen out before they had ladas do they want to go back to those days over a western motor? I sincerely doubt it.
Now I agree with this totally, and that will happen in the end but thereâll be more bending by Putin than the west, Russiaâs total economy is tiny, tiny compared to western nations involved in the sanctions, Chinaâs pragmatism and long term aims will see them pull back from helping to neutrality, they wonât condemn though, India also, theyâll dabble as they see an opportunity (national self interest) but theyâll see the light Iâd say as their economy though larger is still dwarfed by powers sanctioning Russia, a new World order of China, India and the US is on the horizon but the sun isnât up yet.
If Russia thinks it can outspend or get around sanctions while still maintaining the status quo or quality of life it citizens had before Iâd say at best thatâs naive and hopeful and at worst fucking stupid.
Economically Russia is tiny.
I think youâre insane if you think that, Barry.
As @Nottarf-Krap so eloquently said in his post, the US have been driving this conflict from afar. Even if youâre blind to that, India and China clearly are not. That, along with pragmatism, is one of the reasons that neither are applying sanctions.
There has been as much talk about a new Cold War with China as there has been with Russia, especially during the Trump years. Letâs recall this is the China that massacred its own citizens during the late 1980s, or the fact that Indian internal policy seems woefully indifferent to its non-Hindu population.
The bright sunlit uplands. US, China and India. Best of pals.
I think you need to get off the turps and get some kip, mush.
Youâre masking over the fact Putin invaded a nation, youâre looking for a reason or an excuse, you canât excuse that.
The US has been driving that and from when? You think Trump and his isolationist stance was driving for Ukrainian accession to NATO (who Trump disliked intensely) or the EU?
Donât put words into my mouth concerning China and India (you do know its Indiaâs far right parties that support Russia and Putin donât you and where does India buy its arms from?), Iâll think youâll find Iâm Chinaâs biggest critic on here, Iâm simply explaining a reality to you, those three will be the World Superpowers in 30/40 years in all probability, from one to three.
Iâll spell it out, Chinaâs and Indiaâs pragmatism will stop them fully supporting Russia, why would they?
This was even unthinkable let alone printable until even a few days ago, with the Russians retreating back to Belarus and Russia the weaponry will get to the eastern front a lot easier, could the Ukrainians not only repel the Russians but defeat them back to their borders?
After the fall of communism mid late 90s saw fortunes being made. Traders then the russian mafia bought up everything they could find in Dubai, trucked it to Sharjah airport, loaded it onto an Antonov along with 1 russian citizen who was âreturning home with personal goodsâ
They landed, stamped papers while the plane was refilled and flew back.
That trade drove Dubaisâ early growth. When they ran short of roubles they shipped women back who took a one month vacation laying on their backs & took a profit share.
Now Putin has simply Nationalised and resurrected that channel
He now has a source of hard currency to pay for what they need
Doesnât need to profit share with anyone
That wonât be anywhere near enough to keep Russia going, on 4th April they have to pay $2.2 Billion in debt, lets see where we are after that, the Kremlin asking for the money to be paid in roubles shows how they need the money dearly, if they had reserves of money they pay that, its admitting defeat.
You think they will pay it? Even try to? Who do they owe it to?
If they default then there are serious issues, banks wonât lend them any money, all banks are linked, as I said Russia trying to go this alone is quite frankly laughable, the US economy alone would crush it without even thinking about it, also if they lean on the UAE theyâll probably buckle, the UAE are neutral on this remember which as always means theyâll take any money where it comes from (Dubai was and is literally built upon sand) and speak peace but USâs patience is only finite and like it or lump it theyâre still the boss.
Which banks are that bazbot?
I suggest you look these things up as you obviously donât believe a word I say.
Every single financial institution, also roubles are worthless to foreign banks as its lost so much value hence they want to be paid in US Dollars, embarrassing but also a reality, If banks donât mind being paid in that currency then fine, as long as theyâre not forced to but its worthless and its lost value and reliance.
So.
These are the banks who are by law operating in states who have sanctions against Russia?
Or are they in countries that dont give a damn about sanctions?
Banks are global, all banks are global, capital is fluid.
And capital flight is also a problem Iâll add, something you were saying about Dubai also, money leaving Russia isnât helping Russia, Dubai aiding the Oligarchs isnât helping the ordinary Russian is it? Its taking out of the Country, stolen money from public utilities Iâll add, Dubai has no morals about that though, it was built on blood.
Yes. But when under sanctions, who is going to lend them money?
If you default you canât get loans after sanctions until that debt is paid, youâre a pariah also in monetary terms also, junk. Look at Argentina and what happened to them, they were screwed for ages and who did it hurt? That is what Putin is doing to his people, no one else.
If you think Iâm wrong or exaggerating go and have a look yourself, sanctions arenât good and never end well, and not when the EU, UK and US are involved united, that amount of clout will fold anyone.
Mostly US and European Banks according to this:
So yes, definitely operating in line with sanctions.
Indeed and if they donât theyâll never get a loan again, when sanctions end what then? We effect their markets but not the other way around, the only thing they have is gas and that really is it, nothing more, and that in 10 years will be ironed out, the planning is now how to control China whoâll be on European borders.