🌎🌏 The Fall of Western Hegemony and the Transition to a Multipolar World

The Sotonians position on..
#1

For me at least, it’s very clear that Russia has smashed Western-backed Ukraine and resisted the Western sanctions. Adding this to Georgia and Syria, as well as the failure and reversal of US coups in Venezuela and Bolivia and the increasing economic power of BRICS a clear picture is forming that US/Western Hegemony is on the wane.

The fear is also palpable in the hysteria of the BBC front pages and the banning of Russia Today.

You can argue about how fast this transition is going to take and the significance of each geopolitical event, but to me at least it looks inevitable. The West doesn’t have the population, it doesn’t have all the resources it needs, it’s economies are weakening relatively and it seems to be losing its friends. One thing in its favour is armaments, but if it comes to using them at any kind of scale, we’re all in big trouble.

So what does this shift look like in practice? We in the West have the most to lose, both psychologically and financially. How are we going to cope with the new situation that we are going to find ourselves in? What is the significance of Brexit in this context? If Germany gravitates towards the Russian/chinese/Russo-chinese pole(s) does it take the EU with it? Where does that leave us?

#2

I think one of my worries is that Western action has created a lot of hard people and worse, has imbued them with all kinds of motivations to want to have a go.

No-one that survived fhe firestorms of Syria, Iraq or wherever are going to be particularly pleased about Western intervention in their countries. In most cases, intervention has been de-civilising and has regressed most of these places in terms of their outlook.

e.g. Before the Western invasion, Iraq was a regional leader in educating its women. After the invasion, opportunities for these women dried up as more of the country became an ungoverned space.

The Anglosphere has got itself into a situation where the only people that’ll say nice things about it are also in the Anglosphere. Many of the pillars that have propped it up, such as US dollar hegemony, are about to go, and I think that when push comes to shove against a properly armed adversary, NATO will end up being a paper tiger.

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#3

You can add to your list the insane rush by the West to push their technology and then general supply chains to China.
A process that started before Tianamen Square.

Covid has exposed the strain on that supply chain. The Ukraine War will expose reliance on imported feedstock this summer and impact food supplies & costs.

A gentle squeeze on manufacturing exports from China could be caused by any miscalculation or indeed to assert that change and could cause great economic difficulties.

Bribes to Politicians just made it so much easier for them

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#4

This makes sense to me but I’m not sure it’s going to manifest itself in terms of violent physical conflict. More likely it will be through economic conflict. Given the choice of trading with the UK and an equivalent sized market that doesn’t have the same history of violent oppression, the UK’s history is going to count against it.

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#5

It’s so insane it makes you question whether you’re reading the reality of the situation correctly.

#6

I’ve done this skit on here before so regular readers will need to forgive me for repetition, but I haven’t really thought of a better piss-take in the meantime.

I think most nations, if they can, should be aiming for as close as they can get to autarky. It has always amazed me that the United States basically has everything it needs to do this and yet has still made China an absolutely vital part of its supply chain.

I’m not anti-trade, but the closer you are to autarky the less people can take the piss out of you on stuff you don’t got.

So when I see us letting the steel industry go because it’s available to buy in China, I wonder what happens if we ever go to war with China.

Hello China, we’d like to buy some steel

What do you want it for?

Er, forks

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#7

No it hasn’t, Russia has changed its objectives.
From a puppet government to having a part of a nation that isn’t theirs.
You didn’t want to believe the Moskva went down, so I’d take your news and objectives with huge caution.

#8

If you don’t have a material you have to trade Pap, this is we’ll sort of obvious, few nations can develop without such a trade but it’s not materials but people and driving down on labour costs that is an issue.
Rural China will have a middle class and clout soon what then?

#9

What supply chains and technology? Things that the west fell they can have, nothing more nothing less.

#11

Damn that was an epic reply got lost due to craft vodka

#12

Got lost how? You decided that it didn’t make sense or you accidentally deleted it?

#13

Put phone down somehow it opened edit window and pffft.

#14

I’ll try again.
Just before Tianamen some twat went to China and basically gave them surface mount technology and while he should have gone & run the thing UK Gov said no, so they used all the textbooks and did it themselves.
Today they build all the Cisco kit that makes your internet work, your Smartphones. Spin offs make motherboards for your servers & laptops and in most cases the devices themselves.
So bazbot. Yes all the tech that the West uses everyday comes from China & their SE Asia subsidiaries.
The West cant make an SMT Motherboard as most of the components also come from? China.
You have to wait months for a new car because if? The Silicon Chips (sure some come from Korea, Taiwan erc)

So yes the tech the west uses everyday and which they dont have the factories to make any more can be turned off by a sneeze of Covid.

Let alone a political mistaken re-ranted.

It was a JV Shenzhen Gov, DTI and yeah, well.
It had an SPV number and became Foxconn.

Hey ho.

#15

There should be an undelete button under the post, looks like a circle with an arrow on the end of it…

#16

Cool.
Now I have 2 similar rants.
And a tech lesson.
Cheers
Back to The Last Domino video on You Tube

#17

Isn’t Cisco US?

#18

No they don’t they come from Taiwan, or my cars chips do. China makes things the west give them, they in turn try to blag it.

What does China create from their own base, that they solely own?
As it becomes more expensive for the wests goods to be produced in China due to a burgeoning middle class and workers rights the west will move (it’s already doing it to Vietnam and Pakistan), globalisation has no moral scruples where it goes, apple will move, so will others.

#19

Yes and like my old employer APC their kit gets made in China.
Some years back our ME Team tracked down fake products. Nobody believed us.
We went all undercover, acquired a load, nobody except Corporate Legal believed us.
With our data they flew to China with the FBI & the Embassy they raided the factory next to ours and found $millions of fakes.
And $billions of fake Cisco.
I got a pay rise so I was happy. My BDM who did the leg work got a fast track career to global VP

#20

So China makes things for the US as its cheaper, what patents do they hold?

#21

Oh & got a day trip in Business Class from Dubai to Vegas to present at a Cisco conference.
Obv stayed 3 days, played golf, won about $500 playing blackjack
Blah blah