Donāt always need to challenge everything.
An intern missed an email.
Cabinet decided not to take part.
I agreed to take part.
Wow. What a mess.
Indeed not. Twitter probably needs to investigate more, though.
Not hard to follow up, is it?
The TORYGRAPH joins the attack
Oh no he didnāt!
#prayforbranson
Brilliant stuff from Marina Hyde.
Motorboating enthusiast Richard Branson is playing a particularly idiosyncratic game of Monopoly. He would like to mortgage his private Caribbean island. In return, you, the taxpayer, have to buy him Mayfair and Park Lane, all the greens, all the yellows, all the reds, and stick a hotel on every one of them. Also, if Richard lands on Super Tax or Income Tax he doesnāt pay them. And if he gets the Community Chest saying āpay hospital feesā, he refuses and sues the hospital. The only bright side is that he no longer operates out of any of the stations.
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You really shouldnāt chat shit when the whole world has so much time to kill.
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Long thread so Iāll summariseā¦
So because all-death reporting (not just hospitals) lags the data that are shared with us during the daily briefings, we donāt get a full picture of actual COVID-19 fatalities.
The economics editor of the FT has built a model that aims to turn the daily number (hospitals only) into (a conservative estimate of) the likely total deaths.
He has run the model retrospectively and has been highly accurate and if there are errors he expects them to be too low not too high.
So what is the true picture?
41,000 deaths from COVID-19, not 17,000
Fuckā¦
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If I read this correctly, these are Excess deaths linked to Corona though? If so, that means the additional deaths above what is ānormalā, so would include deaths caused by other factors where (for example) people are too scared to come into hospital to seek treatment, as well as deaths caused by other conditions where Corona may have played a part?
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Jeez even I am getting this shit on LinkedIn now.
UK Manufactured, from Pakistan!
Got pinged on LinkedIn any use? Right now I am dealing with medical equipment and 3M 1860-N95-8210- UK made price $4.50 unit. CIF If you have any requirements plz keep and touch with me whatsApp
Does it matter?
Putting my professional head on for a moment, when any aspect of any system starts performing badly when it wasnāt before, I ask one question.
What has changed?
Letās maintain some kind of parallel and say that a a bug was introduced.
Now many things may be directly affected by the bug, but youāll also find a lot of side-effects that youāll also need to sort.
Those side effects arenāt directly related. They might exist because the bug has broken other processes that they rely on.
In my professional case, Iād consider these side-effects to be a consequence of the bug, along with any attempts to fix it.
Therefore, for me, itās pretty cut and dried. COVID-19 is the thing that has changed. Processes have broken down leaving huge side effects which some might want to ignore.
For me, itās all a result of the bug.
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Its why the best data is that which captures ALL deaths over time and make sure we consider the lag in reportingā¦ and compare this to the expected number of deaths averaged over a long period of time. Its why the Euromomo approach to capturing this and illustrating the impact is a good way to make understand the most probable impact of COVID-19.
This way we eliminate any variances on way its calculated or reported or where the death occured, as its simply all deaths against the expected average.
What we are likely to see going forward is deaths falling below the expected average as many of the vulnerable will have died at an earlier stage (as we see after a bad flu year). Its the acceleration of death in vulnerable that makes this different from flu because of the rapidity of transmission, but likely total death toll will be similar to a bad flu yearā¦ but within a much shorter or acute time frame. We also need to remember Flu has effective vaccines for many which we do not yet have for this Coronavirus.
The overall death rate is also currently impacted by health care services being diverted to treat the patients with the infection, so other treatments are being reduced as resources are allocated else whereā¦ including screening services for cancers etc which may well have a knock effect later down the lineā¦ with the global economic downturn likely to effect health care spend, other difficult decisions will be madeā¦ do we divert reduced funding away from orphan, rare or more challenging and costly therapies and focus on infectious diseases, or improved prevention? One thing is for certain, I am not sure how many of the NHS clappers will do the same to pay higher tax to fund the current levels of NHS spend, let alone the require increaseā¦
Key now is what we learn from this and how it impacts on our preparations for future outbreaks of COVID-19 or other bacterial or viral infectionsā¦
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Oh thatās a crackerā¦
Key now is that we learn from thisā¦
As if anyone at āthe topā of UK PLC LISTENS to ANYTHING? Let alone learns.
Thatās why UK is in this Godawful mess!
Its the electorate that needs to learn from this and open their eyes as to why we are in this shitā¦ who is culpable and not vote for the same fuckers againā¦
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I donāt disagree at all. Itās just that as I read it, the article is not comparing like for like with the two sets of death numbers. But yes, they all count and are all a consequence of this shitty bug
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Ah thatās ok then.
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I would say that must surely be a piss-take, but itās so hard to tell these days.
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Agreed. I think we would class this as comedy.