:brexit: Brexit - The Ramifications

Reasonably serious discussion
6617

Not at all Goaty, this is not a completely bad idea, as it will reduce costs and allow that cash saved to be spent on local services… the issue that Brexiteers has is that they question who commands it and should a centralised decision making. Body decide where British citizens should be deployed ( the cynic night say it’s cutrently already like this only it’s the US that we align with…)

I can understand that perspective but would also suggest that those countries represented by such an EU force would have a say in its deployment - eg it is still against the German constitution for their army to go on the offensive …

Why are we afraid of a more centralised decision making when our own governments have been happily sending our kids to their deaths in various global shitholes for years ?

6618

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1062373393046167552

6619

Because the Germans will be in charge.

The Weimar Republic had a constitution, described as “on paper, the most liberal and democratic document of its kind the twentieth century had ever seen … full of ingenious and admirable devices which seemed to guarantee the working of an almost flawless democracy.”

What happened?

The Germans were in charge.

I know you don’t like this notion, but Germany has never really been very responsible with its armed forces when it has had a lot of them.

Did the EU create peace, or was it simply taking military toys away from the Germans that did the trick?

Either way, there are a lot of people that will be justifiably concerned about a German dominated EU army. Look at what the EU managed without one, in Greece.

6620

Yeah, only by Clegg though so I suppose it should have been ignored anyway.

6621

We’re all waiting with baited breath to hear your analysis of Supply and Demand in relation to immigration and the labour market…

6622

Scroll up, you arse. There’s about two years of it.

6623

So… since 1945, the Germans have been involved in precisely zero aggressive action as their OWN constitution precludes it… we on the other hand… Aman, Burma, Falklands, Kuwait, Afgahnistan, Iraq… and how much ‘independence’ have we had in making the decisions to send our troops to war?

To hon about German History in this case as a some sort of ‘concern’ about agressive German tendencies is ridiculous… you know it is. It’s makes you sound like Stan Boardman…

1 Like
6624

But using the data I’ve given you, it proves that although you can read shit on the internet, you cannot apply it in real world situations.

Funnily enough myself and @Map-Of-Tasmania were discussing this. You can read as much as you like, but if you don’t understand what you’re reading you’re going to make yourself look a fool.

Now, be a good lad and explain how the stats prove your Supply and Demand model, or admit you’re a pathetic fraud.

6625

Meh, the facts are on my side. Since its formation, every time that Germany gets a significant military advantage on its continental rivals it has waged aggressive war.

The Germans were the chief proponents of Greece’s enforced economic ruins, with a narrative playing out in the German press that the Greeks were taking the piss.

The inherent problem with an EU Army is the EU itself. There is no demos. No collective wish to be part of the European Union, no collective recognition of what we are as Europeans. The platitudes we hear have been undone by the facts of the matter.

We know that the EU doesn’t give a shit about continental brotherhood. We saw that with Greece. We know that the EU doesn’t respect the decisions nations make. We saw that with France, The Netherlands and Ireland. We know that when push comes to shove in ye olde conflict between humanitarian interests and the EU’s own interests, the EU’s own interests not only win, but often utterly fail the humanitarian interest.

No-one actually believes that Brussels is the centre of all things European. It’s a neutral cipher for decisions made in Paris and Berlin, and if you think Paris holds the whip hand, you are surely mistaken.

The German constitution may well prevent aggressive posturing, on paper. As Neville Chamberlain found out to his great personal cost, pieces of paper can be worse than worthless. The EU is not bound by the same rules, not even bound by a constitution it could get public assent for.

The Germans are in charge. If they’re not, please tell me who is, and if they are, tell me why it’s a good idea to give unaccountable German power a big fucking army.

6626

Whatever. Stan

6627
1 Like
6628

What an invitation! Seeing as I’ve written all of this before, probably multiple times, I’m going to add emphasis so you get it. I have solidarity with anyone afflicted. Those that cannot scroll up are perhaps the most afflicted of all in the age of tablets and mouse-wheels. Here goes.

The basic principle of supply and demand in the context of Brexit is that as a commodity in demand becomes scarcer, the price of that commodity goes up. When supply of a demanded commodity is bountiful, the price will dive. In bountiful commodity land, a buyer that doesn’t like one price can seek a supplier more to his or her liking.

Labour is a commodity, like anything else. Prior to the adoption of freedom of movement, the supply of labour was limited to British workers or non British workers with a key skill. After the adoption of freedom of movement and the early accession of Eastern European states, the supply of labour became everyone in the European Union, regardless of skill level.

Moreover, a combination of economic chasms between British and Eastern European take-homes and our cultural allure (not least getting to learn the world’s most widely spoken language) made the United Kingdom a particularly attractive place to work for much of that European Union labour.

The supply of labour went up massively, with millions of aspiring Eastern European workers coming to work here, as anyone in their position would.

The problem with that is when British unskilled workers demanded things, such as wages they could actually live on, the supply of replacement labour made it easy for their employers to refuse.

What’s happening now, as your own ONS figures show, is that EU migrant workers are returning home. The supply of labour is diminishing, yet labour is still in demand.

Applying the principles of supply and demand, that a demanded product becomes more expensive as supply contracts, it means wages go up. Employers have to pay more for labour than they did when labour was bountiful.

Further, some employers that have big demands may even consider the radical possibility of training talent to create their own supply. That’s already happening too. Apprentices and vocational qualifications are back in vogue for the first time since about 2007 :slight_smile: Fancy that.

Supply and demand as applied to labour, as applied to the heyday of the European Union. It’s a repeat, for sure, but it isn’t getting any less right. It has basically applied for all of recorded history, so I have a little faith.

6629

Southampton General has started an ‘apprenticeship’ program to try and plug the shortfall in nurses graduating through the Universities pathway (fucked by removal of bursary).

1 Like
6630

But the labour figure isn’t going down, it’s largely staying the same, and far more people have found work in the last year than the 9k reduction in the labour market (around 60 times more), in a declining economy, meaning that the jobs are getting scarer in relative terms to the labour.

Have you completely misunderstood those figures, or are you really do bloody minded that you are only reading what you want to?

6631

Which is what is needed to supplement the increase in supply from outside the EU.

6632

Far more jobs are filled. That’s not remotely the same thing, especially in an age of zero hour contracts. The ONS doesn’t specify how it gets its figures. Unless their figures are based on unique national insurance numbers, jobs filled does not equal people in jobs.

6633

Ah, you’re blaming the figures for your inability to explain them. OK, so what figure should we be using then?

Even if those figures are incorrect, you are saying a decrease in the labour market of 9000 jobs (and not all those 9k will be workers), has seen a 3 odd percent increase in wages across the board. Are you sure about that?

6634

This isn’t leave, this isn’t anywhere near it.

I can’t see this getting through even with desperate mp’s wanting to appease and arselick tax dodgers, she has managed to unite both sides of the argument which is no mean feat to be fair.

2 Likes
6635

It has been a consistent flaw of the ONS’ analysis. I’m not a lone voice in the dark, @WorzelScummage. Do see the light.

6636

I reckon there’ll be resignations over this, and soon.

Sadly, the pro-European zealots of the Parliamentary Labour Party will probably vote for this deal.