:brexit: Brexit - The Ramifications

A tedious point to make, but nevertheless… according to the FT (UK economy since Brexit in 6 charts), real wages haven’t yet grown. Not to say they won’t of course.
Also, I’m intrigued… do your predictions for the future change if Labour don’t get elected? What then?

But we’ve established many, many, MANY times on this thread that Paponomics is far too simplistic to be applied in this situation.

However, if you want to debate this sensibly I have a few questions:

  1. For what reason do you think we’ve seen a rise in wages?
  2. Why do you think that after the Brexit vote, the economy has been struggling?

You have, have you?

It sounds like you haven’t. It sounds like you’re inventing terms which you think are pejorative, such as paponomics.

This is all against the backdrop of refusing to believe that concepts such as supply and demand, which have driven human behaviour for centuries, do not apply anymore.

We have never said supply and demand doesn’t apply, we’ve said its a far more nuanced science, and that it is very difficult to attribute causation to Brexit and vice versa without taking into account more complex economic models.

If you want to debate this sensibly I have a few questions:

  1. For what reason do you think we’ve seen a rise in wages?
  2. Why do you think that after the Brexit vote, the economy has been struggling?

Fuck off Cherts, you’re not Paxman. You’ve not even at the level of Banzai’s Lady One Question.

I’m more than happy to debate the issues sensibly. To do that though, it does require that respondents are in tune with reality, or at least prepared to look it in the face.

We’re seeing a rise in wages due to supply and demand.

The economy has been struggling because we’ve got fucking incompetents in charge at home, we’re mandated to pay 15% VAT at least, on everything luxury and we still have to buy a lot of our food from the equivalent of Waitrose. In short, we’re seeing all the problems of Brexit without having come through the other side to experience the benefits.

No need to start swearing love. Just asking you some sensible questions as you wanted me to.

Ok, so you’re saying the rise in wages is due to people leaving the UK post Brexit, meaning there are more jobs and so the wages need to increase to get people into those jobs? Just trying to work out what you mean by Supply and Demand…

This is Sotonians. Fuck off cunt bollocks.

Ok, so you’re saying the rise in wages is due to people leaving the UK post Brexit, meaning there are more jobs and so the wages need to increase to get people into those jobs? Just trying to work out what you mean by Supply and Demand…

I think we might move on if we acknowledge that there has been a small incremental positive shift in wages where many EU migrants worked … that have gone back to their country of origin. And yes one could assume this is supply and demand in action.

For those folks who have been positively impacted this is great as the vast majority of these jobs are for low income low skilled jobs… folks for whom even £10-15 extra per week has a noticeable impact… so I can see why comrade Pap holds this up as a beacon of benefit of Brexit…

However, the idea of extrapolating this the the broader future situation and suggesting therefore we will see a broader wage inflation post Brexit in most sectors is just not possible, it is incredibly naive to try, because as has been pointed out ad infinitum, wage inflation on such a national multi-sector scale has many more complex factors contributing to it… mostly driven by growth.

How post Brexit Britain will look is anyone’s guess but there is real concern that we will see a recession and economic challenges… where usually all those in low skilled jobs suffer first, especially in hospitality sectors etc as these businesses - those that have benefitted first short term from ‘supply and demand’ will suffer first when the demand disappears

The other aspect is of course, the concern that we lose high end, highly paid jobs. It’s easy to suggest that loosing a 1000 bankers is no loss, but losing their tax contributions is, and this is part of the problem… we are already losing many highly skilled jobs as companies consider and action relocation to within the Eurozone.

We may be left with an overall lower GDP and revenue generating situation which is the perfect environment for wage deflation…

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What I am really interested in knowing is how @pap applies the following figures to his Supply & Demand model:

  • Wages have risen by 3.2% in the last year (incidentally, the last time it was this high was in 2015, when we saw a record amount of EU migrants coming into the country, and a record number of EU workers in the UK).
  • 350k more people in jobs over the last year.
  • Net migration has decreased by 9,000 in the last year, due to an increase in non-EU migrants (227k) after a large government drive post Brexit. 101k EU migrants came into the UK, and 139k left.

Can we have some sources for your claims, please?

I’m not taking any of them at face value.

Yep, ONS, and BBC interpretation of ONS data.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/november2018

Can we now have your analysis of the figures, and how they support your Supply and Demand argument?

So where’s the bit about the 2015 wage rise?

Is it 350K more people in jobs, or 350K more jobs with people? The distinction is important. Your evidence doesn’t say.

350k more people in work - the first link says it:

“There were 32.41 million people in work, 23,000 more compared with April to June 2018 and 350,000 more than for a year earlier.”

Here is the piece that shows highest rate since 2015:

https://twitter.com/afshinrattansi/status/1062354654317690880

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How’s it going @pap, any movement on your analysis?

Merkel concurs with Macron and calls for a European army. I’m sure we were told this was all a brexiteer fantasy.

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Were we…?

That’s be rather good news if it did happen.

It’d be very good, as it would be the end of NATO, so no more aggression towards Russia(they’ve also both joined talks with Putin about Syria) and less humanitarian bombing(mass murder of civilians) for regime change.