:brexit: Brexit - The Ramifications

It will be OK provided there are fabulous sex doll robots in our service.

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That was in the top ten jokes so you might be disappointed

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:neutral_face:

I’m disappointed with the judges. The Eurovision lot seem to have more about them.

Experts are so last year.

It’s been ā€˜interesting’ catching up with this thread after a few days away.
When do we get our blue bananas back?

That could have been written about me @pap

Thank God it’s not just me

:lou_wink_2:

Well is it time to start talking about ā€œBrexit Anxiety Disorderā€? Let’s not shorten it to BAD. I don’t want the acronymy.

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Yes, let’s

:lou_lol:

I genuinely think it a worthy topic of discussion. Note that I’m not trying to remotely diagnose maladies or owt. I do find it conceptually interesting though, and I think there is a comparison to be made with Leave voters pre-poll.

Without delving into the specifics of why people voted Leave, I think it’s a fair enough statement to say that most voted out because they wanted something back, something they’d lost due to EU membership. That is a poorly understood sentiment among hardline Remainers.

Could Brexit Anxiety Disorder just be the same thing from the Remainer point of view? For whatever reason, they feel as if they’ve lost something, and they want it back.

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Yes… I think there will undoubtedly be an element of ā€˜what is lost’ - but this probably falls into to two categories… those that are tangible things that many value (that some don’t obviously) such as freedom of movement, Free trade and its implications etc… and the more philosophical and ideological such as the value of closer integration and the opportunity of being at the centre, driving rather than being in the back seat.

But I also come back to the current concern (which is very deep) that of the implications. We need to stop calling it ā€˜project fear’ and other such nonsense, but recognise that for many, these potential implications are not something we wanted to risk… no matter what the ideological considerations. So as with Leavers, there are a complex mix of reasons for the decision to remain…

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This article from the Grauniad is quite an interesting take on Farage, Brexit and his return to the campaign trail. The comparison with BoJo and Trump rings particularly true.

So was losing the vote the first real sense of political loss you’ve felt? Making no judgement, I can see that if you’re prepared to put up with the pitfalls of the project if you perceive the benefits outweighing them, it’s going to feel a tremendous loss if you really feel you benefit.

I get your much made symbolism point too, Map, despite the occasional mockery. It is nice to be able to be able to get on with one’s neighbours, but the country at large does not feel we need political union to achieve that. We’ve great, perhaps better, relationships with other countries, and I don’t think we’re going to turn our backs on Europe.

I honestly don’t think it’s going to stop trading with us either. For the mandarins in the EU Commission, Brexit is going to be where the rubber hits the road.

No-one making a packet exporting to us is going to want to see impediments to that process. The EU is, if nothing else, a businessman’s club, favouring the corporate clientele. I suspect those businessmen will club together when push comes to shove.

And therein lies perhaps another issue… those whose practices tend to make those with a more socially balanced perspective sickened, will likely as you say find a way too circumvent the changes that are afoot and still piss all over the the poor and any legislation regardless… only the rest of us have to do without things we believe have enhanced our freedoms… There will be little cost to the businessmen’s club… because red tape was always before and always will be… the only difference was they could do it with less red tape tape… the only real losers in all this are those that valued the everyday freedoms… and those that lose jobs if/when we see the expected economic shrinkage… shrinkage that those businessmen will have hedged against…

… as to political loss… as someone who grew are up from a 10 year old in 1979… I was 27 by the time I ever saw a political victory I could celebrate… numbed by 18 years of seeing the British public continuing to vote for an arsehole self serving agenda at their own expense… so whilst horrendously disappointing, the Brexit vote did not come as a surprise… the British public have form when it comes to cutting of their nose… imho

I’m specifically talking about the large German corporations that make a lot of money selling things to us and will wonder why they cannot have access to that market.

To your point though, that people may exploit the post-Brexit situation, I feel you’ve not taken exploitation in the pre-Brexit era into account.

Again, I feel it is a case of projections versus actuals. It is potential post-Brexit exploitation versus actual pre-Brexit exploitation.

As voters, we’ve got more agency to influence things in front of us than we’ve had since 1971. No-one can change what’s already happened.

Not quite what I meant… There has always been exploitation by big business - PRE EEC, during EEC and eventual EU and there will be post Brexit… and in some extent some of it is necessary as it provides jobs and opportunities for UK workers… even such hideous stuff as the ā€˜aerospace’ industry etc… My point is that post Brexit, we will still have a ā€˜businessmen’s club’ as you pointed out, as big business will find a way to continue to make money out of UKPLC… But that this may be less in size and scope which will directly impact on UK GDP and its ability to provide the quality of social provision.

You are right when you say we will have greater decision making control… but only within whatever global restrictions our new trade partnership agreements eventually allow… again big business will have a huge influence, and if trading more with the US, that big business IS the government… The concern is the potential shrinkage of our GDP for X number of years and the impact on the most vulnerable… That is a very real concern, because those that suffer will not be those sat in the ā€˜Gentlemens’s clubs smoking cigars’ - In fact as we see already, the really clever evil bastards will even exploit Brexit to their advantage, with new EU based companies and funds, etc.

As I and many remainers see it, from an autonomy and big business perspective, there is really no advantage from Brexit… we will be beholden to Big business, in the US instead of Brussels

From an economic (and socio-economic perspective) it is very high risk, but only to the poorest… Big business will continue to exploit and thrive

From a personal freedoms perspective to live and work where we chose, we lose that - for some this is is good thing as it cuts immigration, but the challenges of migration and immigration needed adult open and honest debate and did not demand Brexit to resolve…

On paper it will deliver sovereignty to keep the Mail and Telegraph readers happy, but it will still be an illusion given the necessary compromises we will have to make to get any trade agreements with global partners… especially the US. Its all very well for the likes of Gove and RM to have spouted Bollocks about ā€˜on our terms’ but that level of arrogance is just a mask for their own self interests…

I have not seen anyone offer any tangible benefits of Brexit… only ā€˜feel good’ stuff about democracy and sovereignty which are both an illusion in a modern global economy. If the plan is for some Leftist economic revolution, a Corbyn led ā€˜4th way’ sticking two fingers up the G8/G20 etc and doing our own thing… will never happen. Big business has too much invested to let it, Brexit or no brexit

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Yes, I agree and would add that there are underlying issues which will make matters worse, particularly in the event of a no deal brexit. Most analysis points to negative growth or at best, a slowdown in growth to very small %ages following a no deal brexit. With the Governments balance sheet affected, it will have to cut more costs and try and/or try and increase funding which will be difficult if sterling has taken a battering as it did recently. It is not unreasonable to think that there will be more austerity and deregulation, which means one thing, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer and big business gets more influence.
So we go into a Government preferred no deal brexit with a) 9 out of 10 of the poorest areas of Northern Europe in the UK b) the lowest wage growth on any EU country with the exception of Greece, c) dreadful low levels of productivity d) one of the lowest state pensions allowances of any country in the world (compared to wages) e) household debt levels at an alarming high and f) worsening inequality. None of these, by the way is the direct result of our relationship with the EU.
I can only see one way this will go. The UK is not in a decent enough position to ride the economic shocks of a no deal brexit without serious repercussions to the welfare of and opportunities for the majority of it’s citizens.
This may have the effect of increasing left wing support, but i doubt it. There is a reason why there hasn’t been a left wing Government for well over 40 years - the British don’t want one.

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Sadly your perspectives are not alarmist or ā€˜project fear’ but a realistic summary.

@pap - not looking to repeat the antagonism, but I did notice that your own posts seem to have shifted in key message, from "its all project fear / we will all be much better off without the shackles of the undemocratic EU) to ā€˜its risk that brexiteers are willing to take to get our country back’ - Is that fair?

As mentioned, I am struggling with seeing any tangible benefit of Brexit for the average man in the street beyond the fact they can say they voted for it…

I am sure you and others may see ā€˜hope’ in JC (Jeremy not Jesus Christ by the way :yum:) But even if he was able to for a Government, there is simply not the freedom not be schooled to someone else beck and call… we will never be a ā€˜senior partner’ outside of there EU… where we very much could have been… And anyone holding out for divine intervention (from JC) is likely to be disappointed

Nope. I still think it is Project Fear.

No need for further antagonism. In about a year, we’ll know. I’m happy to wait to tell this thread that I told it so.