The last recession left us with a legacy of QE that needs unwinding at some point, which presumably needs to be done when the economy shows “good” market stability. The difference between a brexit recession and the last one will be that we are the primary player. The rest of the world won’t really care to much as to how we suffer as long as it doesn’t affect them too much. We will be in a fragile state to try and negotiate advantageous new trade deals while being one of the few in the world trading under WTO agreements with numerous disputes that need to be resolved with our supposed friends (US, Australia, etc), further weakening our negotiating ability. We are not in a good position to enter another recession that would cut deeper than the savage austerity we’ve seen since 2010.
And i’m still trying to reconcile the political pendulum swinging to the extent that right and left meet over ideological principles.
Ideology takes people to strange places, where they make stranger friends.
Brexit is a prime example.
Hell, even this thread is. It’s supposed to be about the ramifications, but all we get is the same rehashed rubbish about which of one only two choices are 100% right(it’s that narrow a discussion).
Here’s a sobering thought.
“All the evidence points one way: the polling needs to be taken literally. Something like a third of the population is so strongly motivated for Britain to leave the EU that any consequence up to and including the destruction of the United Kingdom and the outbreak of violence is acceptable.”
Thanks for the link, SoS. I cannot reconcile why there are people who supposedly want the best for the Country and by virtue, it’s citizens, are prepared to fight a large section of them them and see them suffer in order to achieve what they perceive as being for the best. It smacks of arrogance and self interest to me and is totally opposite to any argument for universal benefit.
I believe that some feel they had a once in a generation chance to right a wrong.
They might tell you that they had no choice and I can understand that.
What I struggle to understand personally is the logic that was applied to the consequences.
Did they honestly believe things would simply be ok or perhaps just get better, economically? (And I should concede here that I don’t KNOW that things won’t).
Or did they realise things would be difficult for many but it was a price worth paying to get the result they wanted?
@Saint-or-sinner’s poll above might suggest it’s 40/60 between those two camps.
It’s been an extremely strange experience.
I kind of feel sorry for people like @pap as the msm have never respected the vote and have themselves been very arrogant, but i can’t get any leavers to openly discuss the potential problems(I could deal with some hardship, if we could all be honest about it) and that’s a big worry.
I feel the whole thing has been a ploy to cause division and none of the British population will gain anything from it.
We’ve all been hoodwinked(both sides) for some larger game.
The legacy of QE is basically the massive increase in the National Debt that has been quoted before that was basically used to bail out the banks. It is a debt that has to be serviced, and increasing interest rates and weakening pound values will not help the finances, so more cut backs get made and they never affect the elite 1% crew
How did we end up with such a fucked up mess, where the average person is paying for the banks mess(don’t come back with the “to big to fail” lie).
No profit or bonuses until they’ve paid their debt to society, or be nationalised is the only fair solution.
Anything else is as dishonest as pig fuckers “all in it together” as he gave multiple tax breaks to the rich, whilst doubling that debt.
“Farage – Gets his kids German passports.
Christopher Chandler, pro-Brexit Legatum Institute founder – Buys a Maltese EU passport.”
“Rees-Mogg – Launches 2 investment funds in Dublin.
Redwood – Advises investors to pull money out of UK.
Baker – Invests £70K in a firm that sells gold to avoid Brexit impact.
Lawson – Applies for French residency.”
The point is a very simple one. The research above says 60% of leave voters would have voted leave despite a shit storm impact in the UK economy… which leaves 40 % who may have voted differently had they known what was coming - IF those who were most vocal campaigners and drivers of Brexit are hedging their bets as indicated above, how many folks may have voted differently had they known this would happen? The loss of any credibility in those driving Brexit… and please dont pretend there are 17mil principled people who voted for sovereignty above all else… at whatever cost… There is no credibility in any claim that starts with ’ I have more faith in the British people…"
It sickening is it not… that those advocating Brexit, driving divine propaganda about immigration and suggesting we will all be so much better off… are in effect hedging their best… not that this was not expected, given why twats they are… but what makes me really angry is that had such actions been known in advance by all, how many would have voted the other way… i also get angry with Remainers who did not vote (and I suspect there were a few who did not bother believing it was a forgone conclusion)…
How about those remain voters who were sucked in by the fear of immediate recession, crashing house prices, 500,000 people almost immediately out of work etc that our leaders promised us would happen straight away. No of that came to light. Maybe if they knew that at the time, they would have voted leave.
I am not sure how valuable any of this research is, except from trying to fan the flames of discontent. For every “yeah but if…” argument, there is always a counter and we all end up going round in circles
See the trouble is, and I’ve said this numerous times before, no-one knows what is going to happen, everyone has their projections, the experts stoke up the fear or relax it depending on what side they take but no-one really knows what the post-Brexit landscape is going to be like.
I’m all for discussing potential problems but a lot of people moot them as “concrete will happens”.
We’ve been suffering hardship for years, our current leader’s austerity plans aren’t working well the poor are still getting poorer, the rich are getting richer and those in the middle are getting more disenfranchised.
I don’t disagree that fear on both sides may have created some odd voting habits, but we need to remember that the impact of Brexit wont be felt for at least another 1-2 years and could then last, so I don’t think we can make judgements on the outcomes just yet… but the smart money suggests its not going to be pleasant… as we see with those who can afford to hedge their bets.
I appreciate that for those ideologically opposed to the EU, the referendum, however it came about, was welcomed… but given that it was driven by a few opportunistic power grabbers who played on post global financial crisis austerity and ‘backlash’ to the establishment (of which they are so entrenched) and the climate personified by Trumpvision… I will always find it impossible to stomach… The same folks who have always tried to divide parties from within that have prevented the UK from being a leader in setting the EU agenda with France and Germany, were the ones complaining most that we were not able to lead or influence that agenda, yet its now clear their reasons were never ideological but about ensuring the chaos that creates vacuums and opportunity for those with resources and no scruples to benefit… How is that democracy?
The ‘people’ were mostly voting based on what they feared most, economic collapse, migrants, refugees from syria, a reaction to the austerity and poverty (not an EU created mess, but a global banking one) … and a IISSM a few out of a misguided and outdated concept of sovereignty… Not really on a richer and deeper debate about what is really best for the people of this country - because when we look to improve the lives of those worse off, we should in my humble opinion ignore deep rooted political and ideological principles and think pragmatically and be prepared to compromise to ensure the best environment for growth and investment.
EU membership to date has not been optimised for such growth which is not surprising given our desire to get rebates and veto rights and not really engage fully… but what is clear to many is that it still represents the best option for such stability especially given the volatility of trade with US and the far east…
As to the political shift to the right this is a red herring… its the standard cyclic reaction to recession and economic slow downs - the fact we have shut the door to many looking to improve their lot, is not going to help with that either… the fact we will still trade with them eventually (we will have to) seems at odds with this desire to remove ourselves from their evil clutches… as with the BNP in oldham here, it will be transient, even if it is concerning. Germany opening its doors to 1mil Syrian refugees is the driver there, so why are we focused on the rise of some bigots as opposed the majority who welcomed them with compassion? That to me is far more reflective of the ideology of most of our EU cousins… We took a few thousand …
OK curve ball.
I agree with all those “elite” who have done things - set up offshore funds, thinking about French Passports etc.
My REAL concern over Brexit is not who won the war but how to survive the peace.
So many hours of What If’s on here miss the one really important thing.
HOW does anyone minimise the rapidly approaching risk.
I’m in business, I wanted to be in the UK but need to convince potential International Investors that I am not thick. Hence I have a PLAN to move my “residency status” to Poland BEFORE March.
That plan is also business related.
But seeing so many of the same old posts on FB, Twitter etc. The comments about being over leveraged on falling house prices. The DEBATE is just all wrong.
Someone somewhere needs to start taking leadership and helping business and people to PLAN for the worst.
And I don’t mean just stockpiling German Beers or French Wines
There is a VERY real possibility that a hard brexit will happen. So what the hell will all those container truck drivers do on that day? What are THEIR plans?
What are Tesco/Lidl doing…
What are YOU doing?
I agree Bletch, that there is more than one way to see it and i wouldn’t generalise on the reasons Leave voters voted as they did. There were / are a number of reasons why, IMHO some sensible and others not so. The post referendum furore, however, has seen a blending of these reasons between folk with traditionally opposed viewpoints, into commonality, which for a not-so-clever, occasional political observer like me, is fascinating.
The first sentence gives you my answer to your first question.
Personalise, about them?
Certainly not. Their game is a large part of the issue.
How’s Fox getting on with his US jaunts?
Any idea who he’s been talking with?
In who’s interests?
Be careful, the enemy of your enemy isn’t your friend. That stopped about a nanosecond after the vote(unless you’re a neocon sleeper😁).
They are the scum of the earth.
I didn’t vote, but i’m not really a remainer, more stuck in the middle. I agree very strongly with certain points from both sides.
All i do know is that if both sides don’t start giving some ground, it’ll be a catastrophe for some, when it didn’t need to be.
Shame all round really.
