That is a possibility.
Equally, a Shia or a Sunni state? Iran or Saudi influence?
A super power Shia state spells problems for Saudi. A lot of sub plots and debating points rabbit holes there.
Equally, and contentiously a debate existed in the sandpit that Islam converts and spreads, like Christianity did back in the day. Again, without going down rabbit holes, eventually that will reach a push back point.
Ah yes but one day we wont need Oil and wont care…
What do you mean we wont need oil? Everything is now plastic made from Oil.
we will always require it or an equivelent.
The dot dot dots implied sarcasm 
From an American friend;
After an initial military-advised troop-surge, President Obama began the final drawdown of troops from Afghanistan in 2014.
We were leaving them in good shape.
We had been there 13 years.
We had spent billions training and arming the Afghan Army.
On May 27, 2014, President Obama announced America’s combat involvement would totally cease by the end of the year, with a residual force of 9,800 troops remaining in the country.
And then…
October 28, 2014…
The United Kingdom and the United States handed over all bases to the Afghan military and ceased all military operations.
On October 28, 2014.
SEVEN YEARS AGO.
We’re not “just up and leaving in the dark of night.”
We’re not “abandoning our Afghan allies.”
We’re not “breaking promises to those who helped us.”
Why in the HOLY FUCK didn’t they get their asses on a plane during the last SEVEN FUCKING YEARS?
The same thing that’s happening now, started happening seven years ago.
So what did President Obama do?
When all of the armchair quarterbacks who got their military science degrees from the same seat over the shit hole that present Trumpers got their degrees in immunology, caught a collective case of the vapors and commenced clutching their pearls and weeping and wailing and gnashing their teeth over the poor little allies who we were “abandoning,” President Obama paused the drawdown and left more troops there to give our allies more time to leave.
So why the fuck didn’t they?
They have had seven years.
Why is everyone acting like we handed control of the country over to the Afghans just yesterday?
They’ve had SEVEN FUCKING YEARS.
It would be a pretty bad thing for one country in particular.
Israel would much prefer a Balkanised Middle East.
That said, the last time there was any lasting peace there was when the area was under the control of the Ottoman Empire, a sort of bloc.
7 years to sort out a visa system for those that helped our troops.
And Raab is now looking into a solution…
Whoop de doo…that’ll take another 7 years.
India would be pretty unhappy too given the low level hostilities that exist over Kashmir.
True, as would a load of the little tinpot dictator states big on oil, cash and Western attitudes.
One of the reasons that the Saudis et al feared the 1979 Iranian revolution was because the mullahs that emerged basically started spouting off that they were un-Islamic.
If something like that did coalesce, it’d be difficult to take down for the following reasons.
The last people to conquer Afghanistan were the Mongols under Tamberlane
Tune!
So.
One flight an hour takes off from Kabul.
Some with only about 40 people on board
Maths dont add up considering the numbers the West are supposed to be getting out.
Conspiracy fan would be seeing tokenism at play here
I suppose the question is who do you get out, the person who pushed their way to the front of the queue , or the orphaned child who was pushed aside in the rush.
There has to be a degree of assessment of who has the greatest need / greatest risk - that doesnt happen overnight.
The Taliban stated quite clearly, all Foreigners can leave.
That is a clear statement.
It also means no Afghans can leave.
Which is why nobody can currently reach the airport as the checkpoints are flooded with Afghans who will all get stopped.
I hope I am wrong, but i think the window to get people out was Sunday & Monday it was a speed and numbers game, not a “let’s look into this and follow due process game”.
In reality Foreigners excluding Embassy workers knew the takeover date was 31st August. Not sure people were especially wise to hang around. Equally, it was blindingly obvious what would happen once control was ceded and ALL Western Governments kept kicking the “get the vulnerable out” issue down the road.
20,000 refugees? Unfortunately I think they are empty words, they wont get out and walking into Pakistan or Iran via the mountain trails isnt going to be an option as how will they get out of those countries?
