:labour: New Old Labour in trouble

It’s hugely reductive, but what do people generally associate Labour governments with?

For better or worse, it’s public spending. The Party gets praised for the work it did on the NHS, and gets blamed for overspending.

That spending has been hugely cut back. The cuts have been fairly universal, with the older generation arguably suffering least. At the same time, we’ve got rents rising, house ownership falling and massive job insecurity. That’s not just a Labour concern. It’s a Conservative one too. My Tory mates have kids that may someday want to go to University, or put a deposit down on a house and thanks to neo-liberal policies, they have to pay for it.

Uni is 50K of debt for each kid, now.

The average house price is £282K, now.

Do these floating voters (or Tories) really want to spend their assets, hard won or otherwise, on stuff that they or their parents got for free?

Sure, they’ll be some people that’ll dismiss these sums as chicken-feed. Can’t see too many of them looking to set up home in those marginals. Most people have these concerns and aspirations for their kids. Most would rather not be financially fucked up to do it. Those are the people you go for.

Theresa May will have made loads more of them by 2020.

In fact, do Mondeos still even exist?

He might indeed do what no one else has done before.

EDIT: I know Mondeos exist. What I meant was do Ford still make them?

Merthyr Tydfil. JC pulls 10x what Smith managed in Liverpool.

In Smith’s back yard.

:lou_sunglasses:

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Originally posted by @pap

:lou_sunglasses:

Woops!

Thats the trouble with Twitter - its ram full of shite

It’s only an issue if you believe everything on it. We don’t even do that here. Claims is claims. They all need to be investigated.

This is quite a good article, under a strangely misleading title.

Peter Kilfoyle: ‘Something is going wrong in Liverpool’

Seem to have funked up the link. Sorry, can someone fix it.

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Originally posted by @Saint-or-sinner

This is quite a good article, under a strangely misleading title.

Peter Kilfoyle: ‘Something is going wrong in Liverpool’

Cheers for linking. I had read that earlier today. Interesting character, Kilfoyle. Witchfinder General in getting Militant out of the Labour Party, and yet says Momentum shares no characteristics with it. He should know.

Liverpool did actually end up getting a lot of money, and getting sorted out. I am not sure that would have happened if Militant had survived, like.

I’ve also met Deggsy. When I last saw him, about 10 years ago, he carried himself in the manner of a picky interior designer, pink shirts and white trousers.

Here’s a decent write-up in the Independent suggesting that this contest is going to be a blessing in disguise.

Given the amount of times Owen Smith used the word “concrete proposal”, it’s refreshing to see someone recognise that Corbyn’s proposals go much further and deeper.

Is there anyone here, Labour, Tory or otherwise that has a fundamental disagreement with any of the policies. Even our Blue friends will concede that it is far better to spend fifty grand on retraining someone for a developing market than spending half that, every year, for life while they leech off the dole.

Even stuff like housing should be of interest. Cool, so you’ve got money. Is it going to last generations? Will it last a little bit longer if your toerag son can move out and see what the bloody real world is like, without your having to subsidise his bloody mortgage? It probably would.

The Tories have done a bang up job of getting it into people’s heads that the only people that need services are the undeserving feckless. The Labour vintage of 2010-2015, to its everlasting shame, played along or butted out, afraid of that rhetoric.

Corbyn is fighting it, doing bloody well in that fight. We need to stop thinking about an election as something that could happen at anytime. I know I was one of those that thought we’d have a snap general election, but even the PLP isn’t that self-destructive. It takes a two thirds majority - May might have gone for a GE to solidify her power. Thanks to this bollocks, she doesn’t really need to. Just not being openly basketcase is working just fine (for now).

When you consider the obstacles and the fact that most of us can be a bit crap in the first year of a big promotion, I genuinely think he’s done remarkably, and that we need to see this as an test decided later, 2020, maybe sooner, but certainly not in the immediate future. He’s getting shitloads better. The one big criticism, that he wasn’t getting his message out, has sort have been solved for him by the plotters.

I’m not sure that’s what they planned :lou_sunglasses:

That’s an excellent interview with Peter Kilfoyle. Really good. It shows very clearly, if anyone had doubts about thiis, that you can’t define a person or their politics by a selection of simplistic yes/no questions. His point about the lack of clear leadership candidates after the Blair/Brown era is very valid - the same was said about the Thatcher era for the Tories, and so it proved. Major wasn’t a successor, just a man who happened to be there at the right time. They had to go through Haig, Duncan Smith and Howard (and the small matter of two lost general elections) before getting a leader who looked credible.

I can recall commentators making this same point ten and more years ago - that Labour would be left with no obvious successor to Brown, as Brown himself had made certain that nobody could be in a position to challenge him. Perhaps, eventually, we’ll actually see this as a benefit - after all, with no credible leader from the right, it’s been a lot easier for a leader to emerge from the left. Killfoyle’s depiction of the anti-Corbyn plotters in the PLP as “student politics” is also very cogent, I think.

One question, papster - not regarding Labour specifically, but taken from your post above - what exactly takes a two-thirds majority? Is that how a dissolution of parliament can be achieved outside of the five-year term? If so then it’s an interesting piece of legislation, and quite a smart one, too. It would be very difficult for a government with anything other than a massive majority from calling a snap election when things are going well.

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As I understand it, it’s fixed term - except for the age old tradition of a vote of no confidence. I might be wrong on the two thirds bit. It may just need a Parliamentary majority. Checking on that. Save me the bother if I’m wrong.

In checking though, I have found out that a provision of the Fixed Parliaments Act is that any government receiving no confidence has a 14 day period to secure a vote of confidence, whereas they usually just fell.

Owen Smith would take Labour sharply to the right

Jeremy Corbyn’s critics inside the Labour Party have perfected missing the point. They come in many guises, from the hardened Blairites to a fake “soft left”.

Some are even dressing up arguments against having a socialist leader as “socialist”. That’s true of Owen Smith, the MP challenging Corbyn after a shameful shadow cabinet coup.

It’s also true of Owen Jones, the Guardian newspaper columnist and former “bag carrier” for the Labour left.

He joined the right’s chorus last weekend with scathing “questions” for Corbyn supporters.

The script they’ve perfected goes like this. Socialism means making socialist policies, which means “taking power”, which means winning elections.

Corbyn can’t do this because he preaches to the choir and can’t handle the media.

Being anti-austerity is fine, but being anti-racist or anti-war confuses and alienates people.

Workers have “concerns” about immigration that must be “addressed”.

So the argument goes—but it flies in the face of reality. Corbyn is energising hundreds of thousands who weren’t Labour members or even voters.

His detractors’ argument rests on a pessimistic and patronising view of working class people.

Years of bosses and politicians squeezing workers and blaming migrants have had an effect.

But arguing that passivity and racism come from below slanders workers and lets politicians off the hook.

Many working class people want to see a fightback and many of them are proudly anti-racist. And those who aren’t can be won over.

But the Labour right’s politics are about trying to be all things to all people all the time—so long as it doesn’t provoke a fight with the establishment.

It didn’t work for Ed Miliband and it can’t work for Owen Smith. Labour lost the last election because its right wing policies inspired nobody.

You can’t be anti-austerity enough to offer better living standards while being pro-austerity enough to satisfy the Tory press. You can’t stop the growth of racist parties while pandering to racism.

What you can do is offer an alternative. Labour isn’t in trouble because of Corbyn trying to do that, but because of the forces trying to stop him.

It’s no surprise to see Labour dropping in the polls when most of its MPs are focused on attacking their own leader.

The path to a socialist society may be long and hard—and Corbyn himself may not go all the way down it. But there’s no shortcut on offer from the snake oil salesmen of electability.

Instead we need to defend Corbyn and strengthen the struggles in the workplaces and on the streets that are key to winning change.

socialist worker - August 2016. -

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A vote of confidence would be about the government; but we don’t have fixed-term governments, we have fixed-term parliaments. This may sound like a pedantic point, but it’s actually very important. A successful no-confidence vote in the government of the day would mean first off that said government could try to reverse the vore, with two weeks to do so. Failure to do this would not necessarily mean a general election, however - at least by my reading of this.

Should this fail as well, then the parliament would still stand. Thus, it would be incumbent upon MPs from various parties to try to form a government. Were this to prove impossible, then I assume that a motion could be passed to dissolve Parliament and therefore have a general election. Hardly a ‘snap’ election then, even assuming that the necessary machinations for a no-confidence vote could be organised.

How often do countries with fixed terms of government or parliament hold elections outside of the fixed dates? Scarcely ever if at all. Belgium has kept its parliament intact with no government for ages in the recent past, for this very reason.

I think the whole idea of a snap general election is so ingrained that people forget about the whole fixed-term parliament thing, or assume that this could easily be circumvented. I don’t reckon it could.

I realise this whole area is an aside, and I’m not trying to pick a fight with anybody. It just interests me for some reason.

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Originally posted by @MrTrampoline

Originally posted by @pap

:lou_sunglasses:

Woops!

This of course is what Jeremy Corbyn is up against. It really doesn’t matter if 24 hours after this so called poll is exposed as fraudulent, non existent even. The damage has been done, millions of people have seen it, believe it to be true, never mind that it is a pack of lies. It just goes to show the power unelected people like Alistair Campbell, Peter Mandelson and the establishment they represent have. There is another 6 weeks of this to come, they will become ever more desperate in their attempts to stop the legitimate members of the Labour Party overwhelmingly electing their leader of choice. Surely only a political cretin could seriously believe that Owen Smith is a serious challenger. After just 5 minutes on google checking his history the only conclusion that can possibly be drawn is that he is a figure of fun, look up the word ‘hypocrite’ in the dictionary and there will be a picture of Owen Smith there. But it would appear that he is the best they have got! I am amazed that Jeremy Corbyn and his team are even engaging with him, to be honest i am saddened that they have allowed themselves to be suckered into these live televised debates. This is not a general election campaign. There were no calls for live televised head to head debates for the Conservative Party leadership. Or UKIP. Rightly so. This is purely a matter for the Labour Party, yet somehow it has morphed into some kind of general election campaign where the nation somehow has to have a voice as to who should be the leader of the Labour Party. This is nonsense. But of course there aren’t many options left for the establishment, the truth of the matter is that they are starting to really shit themselves now, the penny has dropped that this is no longer about Jeremy Corbyn, that ship sailed a few weeks ago. People who for years have been disenfranchised by a political establishment, the Conservative Party, and shamefully the Labour Party taking them for granted, ignoring them, and both making a pitch for the ‘middle ground’, both trying to outdo each other as to which of them are more “extremely relaxed” about people being “filthy rich”, are starting to realize that they have a voice. Jeremy Corbyn can take sole credit for this. In recent history every party leader and Prime Minister had the career plan, from university, research assistant, safe seat, then proceed to trample over their peers, plot, stab their colleagues in the back, whatever it takes to get the top job, have the ultimate power as Prime Minister. If somebody had told Jeremy Corbyn this time last year that he would be the leader of the Labour Party he would have called for the men in white coats. It was laughable, unthinkable. That is the difference. Here we have a 67 year old man, (the same age as me as it happens), who suddenly has this thrust upon him from out of the blue. Thirty odd years as a diligent back bench MP, adored by his constituents because he always put their interests first, a real live idealist who suddenly has a chance to put his ideals to the electorate. One chance in a lifetime to really change politics in this country, a chance to change the status quo and redress the balance in favour of the ignored majority. And very quickly he is striking a chord, hundreds of thousands of people are openly supporting him and ignoring the desperate attempts by Campbell, Mandelson and co to smear and discredit him. No wonder they are shitting themselves. They can’t control Corbyn, that’s what really kills them, he can’t be bought, he won’t sit at the feet of Rupert Murdoch and Paul Dacre, We even had the disgusting spectacle this week of Alistair Campbell openly saying that if there was an election now he would not vote Labour unless Jeremy Corbyn was replaced. In other words he would rather vote Tory than for a Labour Party with socialist policies. This from the man who has been running the campaign to undermine the legitimate leader of the Labour Party since the day after he was elected by an overwhelming majority nearly a year ago. For all the talk of how impossible it would be for Labour to win an election because of ‘swings’ needed from Tory to Labour nobody wants to talk about the elephant in the room. The consistent 35% of people that up to now never vote. For various reasons, but overwhelmingly the main reason, as anyone who ever asks non voters why they don’t vote will know, it is because,‘they are all the fucking same’. And they would be right, up to now they have ‘all been the fucking same’. I suspect that many many of the ordinary people now supporting Corbyn fall into this category. Corbyn must aggressively target these people, by aggresively i mean make a direct appeal to them, don’t beat about the bush, never mind that it will infuriate the Blairite wing of the party, tell them,“yes, i understand where you are coming from, you are right, up to now they have all been the same, but no more”. One thing is for sure, these 35% will never vote Tory, but they may well vote Labour, providing they are offered genuine change. All the swings, focus groups and opinion polls are rendered irrelevent if this disenfranchised group are mobilised. This is what is really putting the shits up the establishment who are desperately trying to stop the momentum that Corbyn has unleashed. And the really sweet thing is it is totally out of their control. But watch your back Jeremy.

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This New 5 year rule for dissolving Parliement is bloody shite

Basically you cannot turf out an ineffective govt even if they have been defeated in numerous by-elections and they can still carry on with a minority govt until the end of the fixed term

Which If they are a minority will not be able to pass any legislation as it will just get defeated.

The Government ensuring they keep there jobs for 5 years is what it looks like to me.

Nottarf - paragraphs, mate, paragraphs.

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Noted! In my defence i must confess it was late and i was ever so slightly pissed after a pub crawl in Liverpool city centre with some old mates who i hadn’t seen for years! Feeling my age this morning though!

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I’ve done a couple of things today relating to the Labour Party.

First, I attended the West Derby CLP garden party. Ours is a burb constituency, and my MP, Stephen Twigg, is historically at least, well in with some of the coup plotters. The Private Eye cutting I shared lists him as one of the few people that voted to remove Clause 4 in the reportedly fractious debate between Corbyn and Margaret Hodges, all those years ago.

I’ve been accused of polarising this thing, and I plead guilty to that, but I’ve been attending Labour meetings throughout, have been exposed to other takes than my own, especially during the leadership nomination debate. I really like Stephen as a bloke. He’s a skilled affable sort with a good brain on his shoulders. I really liked the people I spoke to that were obviously in the Smith camp too. I was having a chat with one fella who disagreed with me, but we still had a really good debate on the issues, that said this.

“I’m on the purge list”.

It’s divisive on both sides, and again, as someone that has openly called for deselection of ringleaders, I appreciate that people like me play a part in his anxiety. I take no pleasure from it. None at all - I actually think its a tragedy that people who broadly want the same things find themselves in such conflict over difference of approach.

Wrote this to sort of get it off my chest, and also appeal to the wider electorate. Labour doesn’t win by winning Nuneaton. It wins by going for as many people as it can.

Corbyn pitches to Tory voters.

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