Local and mayoral elections 2016

Originally posted by @Sfcsim

So true!

1995 labour gained 1807 council seats

2006 Tories gained 316 council seats

2016 labour lost 16 seats

The headlines are not as outlandish as the percentages suggest. Even Corbyn himself said they hung on.

It really was a stunning result in 1995

http://uk.businessinsider.com/the-media-is-ignoring-the-fact-that-jeremy-corbyns-labour-is-pulling-ahead-in-the-polls-2016-4

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Everyone on this site ought to be savvy enough to analyse those results. First off, I do find myself in agreement with McDonnell on where to take the numbers from. The media have made this all about JC’s leadership, so I’ve got zero problem with doing comparisons from the GE in terms of vote share.

1995 really isn’t so stunning in context. It was at the end of a long, tired series of Conservative governments. Blair’s Labour Party went onto secure a 160 seat majority in 1997.

The other problem with these results is that you can only win what you don’t already have, and as CB’s analysis shows, a lot of people are only going by seats. While that’s as good a political metric as you’re going to get, it doesn’t reflect public opinion, nor does it reflect many of the increased majorities that Labour enjoyed.

As much as I hate the fact that marginal constituencies determine the results of general elections, the extremely good news is that Labour has been listened to in the South.

Let’s not distract the mainstream media from their PR campaign - Corbyn, foreigners and junior doctors are dangerous!

The simple folk must be taught to hate - it’s best for everyone.

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Sadiq Khan has been getting congratulations from all over the world, but not from our own Prime Minister.

Shatner’sis great.

@SadiqKhan Khaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnn!!! 👍🏻 Congratulations Mr. Mayor! Bill

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/sadiq-khan-david-cameron-congratulate-labour-london-mayor_uk_57306ed2e4b05c31e5724da2

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I see that my favourite attention seeker (Katie Hopkins) said she would streak through London with a (halal) sausage up her bum if Sadiq Khan won and is saying she will stand by her word. Not for the faint-hearted I would suggest.

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Arf.

Originally posted by @Sfcsim

So true!

Our election results were good and even our critics admit we beat their expectations.

We’ve seen quite a few misleading memes and infographics doing the rounds including these two (the map is inaccurate, the numbers in the other image aren’t wrong but it is misleading.)

Inaccurate information damages our credibility and makes people less likely to believe pro-Corbyn sources; just a reminder that in all the hard work you do spreading the word on social media, check the sources of what you’re posting!

Here are the facts again: We won the biggest share of the vote, more councillors than any other party, all mayoral contests we ran in, and two by-elections (increasing our majority in one.)

More here, on why the chart is misleading:

However, there’s a flaw. The numbers don’t represent quite what they claim.

The first key point is that because of the way the local election cycle works in England. The elections in 1995 and 2016 were contesting a different set of seats - so they aren’t directly comparable.

In 1995 Labour made massive in-roads into Conservative control of English councils. In taking the “46% of councillors” claimed by the graphic, the party under Tony Blair gained 1,807 seats.

In 2006, the Conservatives saw an improved performance in opposition under David Cameron. They gained over 300 councillors and took control of 11 additional councils.

By contrast, in 2016, the Labour party lost 11 seats overall. They gained control of one authority.

You can certainly make an argument both for and against results last week being “a disaster” for Corbyn, but “% of councillors” is not a terribly meaningful measure. You could equally make the chart from the same results like this:

Which still wouldn’t give you any thing the full picture of the results, not least of which because of the way national and regional politics has shifted over the last two decades.

But surely an election map can’t lie?

Well, you’d be surprised. This map was made as a spoof, and one of the accounts distributing the image has as its bio “Political Editor, BBC Baghdad Broadcasting Company, Totally against Labour especially Corbyn, Tweets Conservative propaganda with a comical twist”

^^Added this myself as article links to this tweet

That hasn’t stopped it being retweeted - apparently unironically - by Labour supporters on Twitter. Regardless of how it distributes the results, the map cannot possibly represent Thursday’s results, as over 100 areas of England weren’t voting in local council elections last week.

This map is rather more representative of how and where people actually voted last week - but it is definitely less socially shareable.

Election high points for Jeremy Corbyn

What makes this statistical misrepresentation frustrating to some Labour supporters is that there is no doubt there was some good news for Jeremy Corbyn in last week’s elections. In the projected share of the national vote based on Thursday ballot, Corbyn’s Labour are slightly ahead of the Conservatives.

There were widespread predictions that the party would lose a large number of council seats in England. Projections based on polling figures were off the mark, and Len McCluskey and Jeremy Corbyn’s claims that the party wouldn’t lose seats have more or less held true.

There’s also Sadiq Kahn newly installed as Mayor of London, Joe Anderson re-elected as Mayor in Liverpool and the landmark election of Marvin Rees in Bristolto celebrate.

Which is all the more reason to focus on the actual strong points from Thursday, rather than use dubious statistics

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KRG - don’t really think anybody needs the political education, especially for stuff they haven’t posted.

Doesn’t really help that we don’t know where your stuff ends and the quoted stuff begins, or the point it is you’re trying to make that hasn’t yet been addressed on the thread.

fk off pap, that’s the most balance political comment post i ever read on papsweb srs

tks krg

The quoted bits are quotes. I broke some of the quotes to show I skipped over some parts, i.e. they are seperate quotes.

Cept for the picture, which I say I added myself as the article embedded a Tweet, which went weird on here. I also linked the tweet.

I’m not trying to give anyone an education, but clearly there has been some misunderstanding about what exactly the results mean. I read the article and found it interesting. And y’know it’s kinda related to the topic - and there was discussion as to how to understand the results from last week.

What can I say, full picture n that.

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Yeah, I thought it purposefully misleading in itself.

You can certainly make an argument both for and against results last week being “a disaster” for Corbyn, but “% of councillors” is not a terribly meaningful measure. You could equally make the chart from the same results like this:

A point which I addressed earlier on.

The only way Labour could have won a shitload of council seats is if they didn’t already hold them. Where in this complete picture does it mention that?

Spin.

It’s an interesting thing. Check out the views of these Young Conservatives on Sadiq Khan.

http://www.youngcons.com/muslim-mayor-of-london-warns-of-attacks-against-america-if-donald-trump-doesnt-do-what-muslims-want/

Really not difficult to see how Trump came to be when you read that.

That’s a parody site right? :lou_facepalm_2:

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God Bless America, Yeehaa

It is fun watching everyone try to distance themselves from the Tory campaign now. Even the Evening Standard.

To:

Originally posted by @pap

Young Conservatives

The worst kind!