Labour leadership race - Corbyn elected leader

There’s nothing wrong necessarily in quoting one of Lord Ashcroft’s polls. But consider the question he didn’t ask: if there were an election tomorrow/next week, who would you vote for?

I suggest the reason he didn’t ask this is because, as a Tory grandee, he wants for now to perpetuate the myth that there’s something even remotely electable in Corbyn’s rag bag of political poses.

And on the question of electability, even this poll, with questions posed in deeply hypothetical language, only 43% think a Corbyn-led party (again, interesting that they don’t pin this down in the question) could win a general election.

Sir is of course aware, that we’re all operating on a linear timeline. Four and a half years.

What’s a long time in politics, again?

The reason psephologists ask that question is that it distinguishes between an airy-fairy “oh yes, maybe if that was on offer some time in the future” opinion, which is notoriously unreliable and prone to drag even fierce opponents into agreement, and a hard choice that an elector would be asked to think about making right now.

That’s irrelevant. Apart from the leadership contest that Corbyn looks set to win, we’re not having an election right now. You can’t seriously be criticising Corbyn for his imagined performance in a hypothetical election of your own invention. Can you?

It’s far from irrelevant. I repeat, it’s what pollsters do to elicit answers that are not based on some far-off projection. The latter produces worthless results because those polled have nothing to gain or lose by answering one way or the other.

There’s been enough debate about the various candidates, and enough news and social media coverage, to make a question about an imminent vote entirely meaningful.

Let’s see what the real election throws up. I’ll stick my neck out this far. He’ll outperform Miliband in both popular vote and seats.

I’ll bet the opposite - that the disaster that was Ed Miliband’s bid for power will seem like a shining beacon of high achievement compared to the cluster fuck we’re now evidently emarked upon.

Based on some reasonable guesses about a Corbynite programme, I predict a popular vote no higher than in the high teens - in other words the worst performance by a Labour leader since the formation of the party. If someone were to press me for a more precise guess, I’d go for 14-15% of the popular vote.

We’ll see.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/10/cruddas-says-he-worries-about-labour-under-corbyn-turning-into-trotskyist-tribute-act-politics-live

Burgon said that Corbyn would run a “more collegiate and more collectivist leadership than Labour was used to. Opponents would have their views taken into account, he said.

“I think if and when Jeremy Corbyn is elected some people will be pleasantly surprised at the new type of leadership Jeremy will offer. It will be a more collegiate and a more collectivist leadership which will include MPs who don’t agree with some of Jeremy’s politics … I actually think there will be MPs who disagree with Jeremy on various things who find that they get heard more and get listened to more more than was the case under previous leaders that they did agree with.”

Originally posted by @pap

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/10/cruddas-says-he-worries-about-labour-under-corbyn-turning-into-trotskyist-tribute-act-politics-live

Burgon said that Corbyn would run a “more collegiate and more collectivist leadership than Labour was used to. Opponents would have their views taken into account, he said.

“I think if and when Jeremy Corbyn is elected some people will be pleasantly surprised at the new type of leadership Jeremy will offer. It will be a more collegiate and a more collectivist leadership which will include MPs who don’t agree with some of Jeremy’s politics … I actually think there will be MPs who disagree with Jeremy on various things who find that they get heard more and get listened to more more than was the case under previous leaders that they did agree with.”

Labour MP send Corbyn supporter says his leadership will be more collective? Go figure. Have to agree with Furball here, will do worse than under Milliband. Labour to become peak Lib Dems.

Has the beard man won this election now then pls or is it Not Know yet?

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We still don’t know, but the expectation is that he’ll win.

Well done to Chertsey and Furball for sticking their necks out. I think they’ve both forgotten what a piss poor opposition Miliband managed, or the fact that people just didn’t take to them. We shall see.

Pap, I’m gonna side step the Stop The War Coalition debate because clearly I fundementally disagree with your standpoint on this (and it’s a debate I’ve done to death over the years, so don’t particularly want to relive).

My curiosity point at the moment is, should Corbyn be elected (and part of me hopes he does just to see what happens, and to flush out a few issues, even though it massively scares me about the consequences on UK politics) what stand is going to take with his party who isn’t in tune with him, with a massive and complex humanitarian crisis in the Middle East that isn’t going away. We will have a leader of the opposition who doesn’t believe in military intervention on any level. And a history of not following the whip. It’s going to be interesting that’s for sure.

I quite like the beard man now. I was against beard man at first because the Papers all say he is a Looney, but now I am Suspicious of Media Motives & think he might not be a Looney at all, and even if he is, I am ok with having a Looney in charge, especially if it will annoy the Papers.

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Originally posted by @pap

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/sep/10/cruddas-says-he-worries-about-labour-under-corbyn-turning-into-trotskyist-tribute-act-politics-live

Burgon said that Corbyn would run a “more collegiate and more collectivist leadership than Labour was used to. Opponents would have their views taken into account, he said.

“I think if and when Jeremy Corbyn is elected some people will be pleasantly surprised at the new type of leadership Jeremy will offer. It will be a more collegiate and a more collectivist leadership which will include MPs who don’t agree with some of Jeremy’s politics … I actually think there will be MPs who disagree with Jeremy on various things who find that they get heard more and get listened to more more than was the case under previous leaders that they did agree with.”

Decision by committee… just what we need…but at least all the MPs will feel warm and fuzzy.

i have voted coxford lou down cos it sounds like she is being sarcasm on beard man & I am getting enough of that from Newspapers

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I have covered the whip thing numerous times, as has the Corbyn camp. Burgon’s comments are a clear signal that the wider party is going to be involved. Though not a suggestion of the Corbyn camp, I loved the premise of the article I linked suggesting that this is an opportunity to remove whip politics.

If you’re correct, and MPs decide to go against the whip, we’ve basically got the same situation as removing the whip, haven’t we? Except with a load more infighting, and of course, the MPs run the risk of alienating their local constituents if say, Corbyn proposes something popular which they then defeat.

In either of those no-whip situations, the MPs will be genuinely responsible to their constituents and their CLP. I can’t imagine any of those politicians getting reselected if they try to justify their decisions in they way they usually do.

If Corbyn wins, New Labour is dead, killed in a mass uprising of Labour’s own members. There may be some zombies shambling about groaning about electability. Bring them on, I say. Every time Mandelson, Blair, Clark or any of the old guard tell the public they shouldn’t go for Corbyn, the public goes for Corbyn. Hitchens had the right of it in his interview with Owen Jones. People are sick of being told what to do, and internally, I think Labour is fucking sick of the infighting. How many human years of good policy were lost to the fucking ego clash between Brown and Blair.

I think you’re misrepresenting him on the military level as well. I don’t think he’d stand idly by and allow this country to be attacked, but neither do I believe that his policy is to drone strike every terrorist to death.

I’m not condoning Assad’s actions, but I personally do not think a conflict to remove him will serve the region or the Syrian people right now. Dubai_Phil is completely correct in that we need to work with the regime right now, unpalatable as that may be, a fact that even Phillip Hammond seems to recognise with the olive branch of six month’s grace.

I am glad Tatchell was balanced in his foreign policy analysis and spoke of the hypocrisy of the West in allowing our friends to commit human rights abuses unchecked, while condemning the people we don’t like and saying they have to go. Why stop with Assad? Why not go after Saudi? Bahrain? Kuwait? Qatar?

Any military action we take now is going to be dealing with the consequences of what we did before, and what we did before was neither necessary, beneficial to those living there. Iraq wasn’t even legal. Given the bang-up job we’ve done on post-conflict planning in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, do you really think another Western-led war is the answer?

It wasn’t sarcasm! It was openly mocking! Thanks for explaining the vote down though. Though I suspect you only like him because he’s hairy like you.

Originally posted by @Coxford_lou

It wasn’t sarcasm! It was openly mocking!

Ah, excellent. I am glad you opened that door. I openly mock you for running away from my comments on the UK being an aggressor state, and would like to know the source of your fundamental disagreement, given that we did illegally invade a country halfway across the world that was not attacking us.

Thanks for explaining the vote down though. Though I suspect you only like him because he’s hairy like you.

Don’t worry about the hairy comments, Bear. That girlfriend just got called out, yo :cool:

Answers on a post, please Lou x

Originally posted by @pap

Any military action we take now is going to be dealing with the consequences of what we did before, and what we did before was neither necessary, beneficial to those living there. Iraq wasn’t even legal. Given the bang-up job we’ve done on post-conflict planning in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, do you really think another Western-led war is the answer?

I don’t think military interventions are necessarily the answer, but I don’t know what the answer is - I don’t think anyone does. But I’ve certainly never found the answer in the likes of Galloway et al. There is a high likelihood there isn’t an answer within the next century. Doing nothing isn’t an answer, western sponsored regime change and military interventions hasn’t been the answer, civilian uprisings and revolutions haven’t been the answer, negotiating is nothing on its own. Nothing has worked up until now in the Middle East. It’s a brutal region, and it needs to evolve. All I hope is that Western involvement becomes more sophisticated and learns from its errors, and helps the region to achieve this for itself. But if anyone were to say to me - it’s not our problem, we shouldn’t be getting involved, then that’s where I’m completely on a different side. Blair achieved a lot in N Ireland, the Balkans as well as other troubled regions of the world, but he failed in the Middle East. That is what it is. But I still say, not getting involved isn’t an acceptable answer.

Who knows, maybe this experience will be the making of Corbyn. Maybe he’ll figure out a way to be a leader that can influence positive change, rather than be the principled protestor always on the sidelines. We will soon find out.

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Originally posted by @pap

Ah, excellent. I am glad you opened that door. I openly mock you for running away from my comments on the UK being an aggressor state, and would like to know the source of your fundamental disagreement, given that we did illegally invade a country halfway across the world that was not attacking us.

You’re welcome to openly mock me, I’m impervious. I’m also stubborn, and only get involved in debates I wish to get involved in. :slight_smile:

However, I hope my last post at least explains my position on things (I’m no Tory), while not necessarily the detail. Being of Egyptian descent, it’s an issue pretty close to my heart, and not one I play around with for sport.

Thanks for dropping the “Bliar” bullcrap in your last post though - it was much appreciated :wink: