Youâre reading too much into data that is missing variables. Clinically for mortality rate youâd look at deaths per 100k (or in this table per million) in the whole population. Still doesnât make for good reading but gives a better overall view of whatâs going on, in particular this table shows that we are not testing as many people, which will make our mortality % higher if just comparing it it confirmed cases.
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And those that have tested positive are often in hospital for other reasons. Itâs basically like saying wow, look how many of these really sick people are dying.
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Amateurs, Trump went straight to the top to shift the blame onto the W.H.O., stating ââThe W.H.O. gave us some very bad advice, very bad, the worst advice ever given in my generation, about keeping our borders open to the chinese, I canât explain how bad that advice was but we wonât get fooled again.ââ
Amateurs, you certainly got that right!
I agree that weâre missing variables. Hopefully we will start to get useful data from the Kingâs College app. Right now, all weâve got are hospital and care home death stats.
I also completely accept that the UK has been utterly shit on testing, and that if we had a better testing regime, there would be a lot more of the living within those numbers.
That all said, those are the same metrics that the rest of the world is working to.
If the UK ends up with a terrible percentage because it is not testing, what can I do about that?
Iâm not expecting you to do anything about it (other than stay at home and wash your hands), Iâm just saying that stating we have a death rate of >10% is fundamentally flawed if you are basing it solely on deaths/confirmed cases.
If you know the data is rubbish, then just be quiet and stop partaking in incorrectly interpreting flawed statistics.
If the other stats are based on the same variables, then the only problem is that we donât know what is stored in ours.
In many ways, thatâs an even worse problem.
You can only manage what you know about. If I donât have numbers to hand at work, I work first with the actuals and make reasonable predictions about the outcomes.
There are two values we donât have. Properly.
- Number of people infected
- Number of people that have died after being infected
Those figures are crudely represented in what Iâve recorded, but letâs put them into context, accurately.
The death figure is anyone that has died in hospital or a care home.
The test figure is anyone that has tested positive.
Beyond that, I just donât know. But the situation is the same in many other countries, and weâre using the same baselines for the calculations.
So when you make a statement like:
Youâre happy to make it based on flawed/incomplete data?
If other metrics are based on the same input variables, yep.
Every country has the same issue in that it can not universally test.
Every country has the same issue in that is cannot accurately record the rate of deaths.
That being the case, the only thing we have to work with are recorded numbers, and if those recorded numbers broadly measure the same demographics, then I am perfectly fine making that comparison, especially when considering the health service setup of each country when this crisis started.
Do you think you might want to step out of this one?
@gavstar and I have disagreed on many things. We also stood next to each other for half a season at St Maryâs.
No-one needs a lesson from you on what others are like, least of all Gav.
He has his opinion. I have mine. Weâll work it out, thanks.
I assume you were standing and he was sitting? But what does standing next to someone have to do with an incorrect understanding and application of causation, association and statistical variable control?
Fair enough, I just think itâs a bit rash to make that kind of statement based on early stage and inaccurate/incomplete data.
This is probably the best comparison at the moment:
You can assume thatâs heâs seen me in enough states of varying sobriety and heard me talk enough shit so that anything youâve got to add from your position of remote analysis is going to swing him either way.
Please feel free to report me to whichever authorities you deem appropriate for this heinous post.
Report you? Why would I report you for that? Its a very childish way of trying to win an argument.
OMG, Iâve had 2 posts flagged for inappropriate content 
Some people eh?
Changed my avatar as it seems this is the way Iâm being viewed nowâŠ
If you check on sickipedia youâll find that youâre actually the 3,775,893rd guy to crack it. 
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Itâs how we roll these days.
Part of the joys of Discourse. If something that you can do too.
Itâs considerably less power than users were conferred on the original versions of that site, but that is probably a good thing in hindsight.
Iâm glad @saintbletch convinced me to make the move. This is much better.
Frankly, after reading that Iâm fucking bricking it.