:brexit: Brexit - The Ramifications

[saintbletch]

No. Not at all.

I was just adding background to your dismissal out of hand of @Saint-or-sinner’s position.

My assertion is that we can’t fall back to WTO terms at the same level we currently enjoy. Which I think was @Saint-or-sinner’s point.

Falling back to WTO terms without the EU bloc-negotiated quotas and tariffs is really punitive and really ugly and if we want anything like the terms we already ‘enjoy’ as one twenty-eighth of the EU then those will be challenged and will need to be negotiated and that can take 90 days plus one year to even be heard.

Or put another way, we will be able to fall back to trading with the rest of the world on the terms enjoyed by Libya and Afghanistan. Anything more will take time and diplomacy.

[BTripz]

See, this is where the whole thing really, really pisses me off. Petty bureaucracy!!

Why the fuck can’t they just take the EU terms and rewrite them under the UK, surely it can’t be that difficult?

But going back to the first article you quoted Bryce Baschuk said

The UK is currently a WTO member in its own right"

Surely that means we can fall back to WTO rules easily?

However he then goes on to say

Of trading with the WTO countries, Bryce warns: “There are no sharks in Lake Geneva, but the WTO is full of them. They smell blood in the water and they’re going to demand their pound of flesh.”

Why can’t people just be nice to each other or are we paying for the sins of our colonial past?

Point of Order!! Should these WTO discussions be moved to their own thread outside of the Brexit and Try ones??

[saintbletch]

So if you’re Argentina and you’ve had both a war and limited beef export quotas with the UK in recent years, and the UK has bent over to touch it’s toes, what would you do?

It’s naive in the extreme to think that every nation we want something better from isn’t going to want something better in return.

And in the background I wouldn’t be surprised to see the EU making it difficult for the UK if it thinks it will suffer from the UK’s improved terms.

[saintbletch]

PS yes I think you should move the wto content to the Brexit thread. It doesn’t seem to belong here.

[Bathsaint]

Someone sent me this. Surprisingly engaging and informative.
The guy who brokers trade deals seems to know quite a bit about the ‘rules’. The guy who transports stuff around Europe obviously knows some issues with getting stuff around. The other guy with the hat is the stooge.

YouTube

[pap]

@Map-Of-Tasmania

I have to admit I am at a loss as to which zinger that would be? Would it be the one where you have stated we used to have surplus before EEC membership way back when we still just about had a manufacting industry that still escorted to our commonwealth friends … the same industry that has been systematically fucked and dismantled over the last 40 years ?

You have not indicated how that will be addressed so that can once again achieve that surplus?

Er no, @Map-Of-Tasmania . I’m saying that last year, we had a surplus balance of payments with the rest of the world, and a deficit with the EU.

The surplus is already happening with the rest of the world. It isn’t happening with the EU.

Perhaps if you’d clicked the link, you’d not have crafted such an incoherent and ill fitting response.

[pap]

Saw this at the weekend.

I particularly enjoyed the part where the haulage multimillionaire was crying about closing his business.

Did you enjoy the preaching though, converted one?

[lifeintheslowlane]

@pap

I particularly enjoyed the part where the haulage multimillionaire was crying about closing his business.

Don’t let the possibility of perhaps 100 ordinary employees losing their jobs spoil your amusement.

[pap]

Why would it? These are not indentured servants. We have a system whereby the labourer is free to choose which firm benefits from that labour. Plus, there is the trifling issue that he won’t really be closing his business.

[Bathsaint]

Yeah, don’t worry @lifeintheslowlane, they’re all budding entrepreneurs who will set up their own businesses lickety split - as long as they don’t want to trade with the EU (or anyone else for that matter, it would seem, assuming the WTO situation is as dire as it seems) then hooray for them. I’m sure they’ll have no problems at all.

And if they don’t want to set up their own businesses, there’s all that fruit to be picked - don’t forget that.

Wow, we’re going to have a bloody lot of entrepreneurs on our hands, aren’t we?

[pap]

You mean if the WTO is as dire as the shit Cassandra’s hope. The country can fail. It’s more important than that you’re right, init, Cass?

[Bathsaint]

Not entirely sure what you’re going on about, but all I’m doing is listening to people that know what they’re talking about rather than dreaming about some utopian future that may or may not happen. Here’s an emoticon just for you.

No-Deal-The-WTO-Option-Fact-sheet-1.pdf

[Polski_Filip]

We were told rules in the EU are harmonious, so we voted out.
Yet this morning I parked the rental car, walked 80m to a shop & bought CBD tea & oil, took that Absinthe picture for the pickled thread and it was all legal. In the Czech Republic.
Yet back at the car I could in theory have been arrested.
But I’m sure Boris said…

[pap]

Cassandra. A figure from antiquity famous for warning of great danger, justifiably, but doesn’t get listened to.

Shit Cassandra. A figure from modernity that says, without substantiation, that the fucking sky is going to fall in. Still doesn’t get listened to.

[Goatboy]

Also Rodders’ squeeze.

[Bathsaint]

Yes, I know the mythological figure of Cassandra and the meaning. It was just the rest of your nonsense that didn’t make sense.

There seems to me to be a shitload of substantiation but you just don’t want to hear it because it doesn’t fit your narrative.

[Map-Of-Tasmania]

You can’t post without asking to be called a prick can you ? Why not specify which of the 6000 posts of Twaddle you were referring to instead of expecting folks within less time than you having to try and locate what piece of irrelevant ‘facts’ you are referring to…

You present this as if the surplus is the be and end all of the economy… but trying to get you to accept anything apart from your A level economic theories is impossible… I am sure you are smart enough to understand them, just to stubborn to attempt to…

[pap]

You’re dealing with projections, things that are yet to happen, and may not happen at all, @Bathsaint. That’s not truth.

I’m dealing with actuals, things that have happened, are happening.

So please don’t lecture me on the truth, especially about not wanting to hear it. If Discourse is doing its link counting job properly, it appears that no-one clicked on the bang to rights evidence from the ONS

It must be true. The truth must hurt. Arf.

[Cobham-Saint]

Where’s link in question @pap ?

[Saint-or-sinner]

@pap

What deals? I haven’t heard anything concrete, apart from TTIP is dead. Moreover, we already trade with loads of countries outside the EU without a formal trade deal. We and the US are each other’s biggest foreign investors, and while we benefit from things such as the visa waiver system, no overall trade deal exists.

Answer me one question. If trade deals are so necessary, how comes we have a trade deficit with the EU, and a trade surplus with the Rest of the World, where we have few formal trade deals?

The government’s own figures.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/internationaltrade/articles/whodoestheuktradewith/2017-02-21

It’s this one Cob.
@pap is assuming that everyone gets all their information here and couldn’t possibly have read it somewhere else(not sure how that works, when we all link from multiple sources).