OptiNews - Friday 09 to Thursday 15 March 2018

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Expected goals: Stats experts reveal how Premier League matchweek 30 games should have finished

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Another weekend of Premier League football has come and gone, and it was a thrilling one.

Manchester United claimed victory over their fierce rivals Liverpool, while Chelsea got back to winning ways with a win over Crystal Palace that was much more convincing than the scoreline suggests.

But, do the stats experts say the results from matchweek 30 were correct?

‘Expected goals’ is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match, with every shot taken given an ‘expected goal’ value based on the difficulty of the attempt.

Based on a number of factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders, the ‘expected goal’ value reveals the likelihood a specific shot will end in a goal; the higher the value, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot

The ‘expected goal’ value of every shot in a game is used to calculate the ‘expected goals’ (xG) of a match.

Should a team end with a higher xG than actual goals scored, it is probable they were wasteful in front of goal due to poor finishing or an in-form opposition goalkeeper. If the real goals scored is higher than the xG, the team have been lucky to score so many in that match.

So, how did every team perform compared to their xG in Premier League matchweek 30? Click the right arrow, above, to find out…

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#SaintsFCU23s midfielder @benrowthorn previews tonight’s #PL2 clash against #NCFC: http://sfcne.ws/U23BrNCFC

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THE VERDICT: Players cannot avoid the blame

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Saints’ players need to realise how lucky they are and get on with the job in hand.

This isn’t a footballer bashing type of point being made. It’s not their fault they happen to be good at kicking a ball around and society awards that so disproportionately.

This is meant in the sense that they could already be feeling condemned to slipping through the Premier League trap door and into the Championship.

Five wins out of 30 games, one win in the last 17. They are the kind of stats that in another season might have left them already being cut adrift.

And yet, not only is that not the case, but they also find themselves outside of the bottom three.

Their future is still in their own hands. Their destiny belongs to them. For that they should feel grateful.

We have spoken countless times in these pages about questions over the ownership of the club, the transfer policy and general direction, the manager and his tactics.

Of course, all of these things play a factor in the mood of the squad, and that does have some impact on performances, and therefore results.

But it is galling to hear that the players seem to be absolved of all blame when there is another, more convenient scapegoat around. Yes, most of the time you can defend them. But against Newcastle you could not.

The very bare minimum you should expect from a professional athlete is effort and desire.

If they aren’t good enough then so be it. If the other team are simply superior, well there’s almost always somebody better. If you are unlucky, if you are let down by a mistake, if the manager has got things badly wrong. Alright, these excuses are fair enough – so as long as you have hit that minimum requirement.

To just throw in the towel is unacceptable.

It doesn’t matter how much they are or aren’t paid. They are professionals, and they should give it their best shot.

What Saints produced at Newcastle was pitiful.

They conceded an early goal and, as the manager put it, and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg pretty much admitted, gave up.

They allowed relegation rivals Newcastle to stroll to victory.

Maybe this will be the kick they need to fire themselves up and roll towards survival.

Games are running out. Fixtures are about to get harder.

And while it always easier to find someone else to blame, especially in a team sport, individuals have to take responsibility too.

They are not too good to go down, and it is largely the incompetence of others stopping them from already staring that prospect in the face.

There is time to rescue this situation, but it is going to take character and spirit.

No matter what else you say about the club in general – and there is plenty to say – there are people pulling on the shirts who need to do more than they offered at Newcastle. A lot more.

At St James’ Park, Saints completed a consecutive hat-trick of dreadful first performances, only this one was more spectacularly incompetent.

Whereas in the games against Burnley and Stoke a lack of forward invention had been coupled with a relatively solid defensive game, this was just calamitous.

And when you talk about defensive errors, it was from front to back.

Newcastle took the lead after just 63 seconds.

Jonjo Shelvey was allowed to lob in a high ball over the centre halves which Kenedy brought down on his chest, spectacularly spinning the static Cedric Soares in the process.

His shot wasn’t the cleanest but directed into the far corner.

It was so nearly 2-0 just minutes later as another Shelvey’s pass picked out Dwight Gayle but a heavy touch when he was in behind allowed Alex McCarthy to smother the danger.

Gayle tested McCarthy again on 25 minutes when Mario Lemina was caught dwelling on the ball by Mo Diame and the striker picked it up and burst forward, but his shot from the edge of the area was well saved.

Newcastle’s second goal on 29 minutes would have been funny, had it not been so tragic for Saints.

Lemina went to hit a shot on the edge of the box but missed it and fell over, allowing Ayoze Perez to drive forward.

From there Saints were played around like statuettes, Perez feeding Gayle who squared low to Kenedy who had a tap in.

Saints had one shot in the half, an effort sliced hopelessly wide by Cedric.

Pellegrino, who was negative in his selection, went attacking for the second period, throwing on Shane Long and Josh Sims at the break.

Though Saints were marginally better, it was Newcastle who bagged the only goal of the half on 57 minutes.

They had already threatened when Kenedy’s shot was turned wide, but again it was Saints who were so lacklustre as to almost invite it.

Shelvey threatened to shoot on his right foot from just outside the area three times, but James Ward-Prowse didn’t commit, Hojbjerg got dragged across and a square ball found Matt Ritchie who guided a first time shot into the bottom corner.

With the game over, Saints did muster a few brighter moments.

Sims picked out Guido Carrillo but his first time flick goalwards was saved. Ryan Bertrand guided a free header from a corner over from eight yards out, Jack Stephens produced the same outcome under a little more pressure moments later while a strong drive from Sims forced Martin Dubravka into a meaningful save.

It was too little, too late though.

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Sorry Saints not broken yet

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SAINTS looked completely lost and crushed after their shocking 3-0 Premier League defeat to Newcastle but Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is adamant the bigger picture isn’t broken.

A snapshot of Saints’ predicament after the Magpies loss is unchanged, with Mauricio Pellegrino’s remaining in 17th, a point above the top-flight drop zone.

With relegation rivals Crystal Palace losing to Chelsea, West Ham to Burnley and Swansea and Huddersfield playing out a goalless draw, Saints came out relatively unscathed from their trip to the North East trip, if only in terms of league position.

The full cost of the disgraceful St James’ Park beating is yet to be fully counted but, right now, Saints’ destiny remains in their own hands.

“Every game is crucial. Every game is a final. The last games were finals as well. We didn’t the result we wanted but it doesn’t mean the whole bigger picture is broken,” said Hojbjerg.

“Luckily, we have next week the possibility to show we are better than this.”

Saints’ display at Newcastle was a new low, as a brace from Kenedy and a strike from Matt Ritchie consigned Pellegrino’s strugglers to a miserable defeat.

“I don’t like the words sorry but it’s the only word I can say right now on behalf of the players to everyone who showed up with a Southampton shirt,” said Hojbjerg.

“It’s not fair to them and everyone needs to look in the mirror and asked themselves ‘what can I do so that the team get a better result in the next game?’

“Let’s not speak about staying up next season. There is no way around it, we have to stay up, we have to show who we are.

“There’s no way of going down. This cannot happen.”

Hojbjerg was deployed next to Mario Lemina in the heart of Saints’ midfield, replacing Oriol Romeu in the starting XI.

The Danish midfielder stated he was angry after the display.

“I don’t think I can describe the emotions, the things that I am feeling. I’m just disappointed and very angry at myself,” he said.

“As a team it’s just not good enough. You can blame things. I don’t know what but it’s just not good enough in the end as a group.

“We didn’t succeed today. This is the fact. For the fans that have come a long way in a large number to support the club here.

“Us as players, as international players, good players, it’s just I don’t know what. I’m sorry.”

He added: “We will do everything we can. We have to stay up. As a club, as players, we will stay in the Premier League next year because this is what we are.

“But the reality speaks for itself and we can’t hide. We can’t come back from anything. The reality is speaking for itself.

“As easy as it is to step, as difficult it is to do it, there is no way around. There is no way of hiding. Not showing the balls you have, not showing who you are because anything less is not enough.”

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Ashley Young a World Cup contender - 10 THINGS WE LEARNED

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Manchester United’s victory over rivals Liverpool was the pick of the bunch as the Premier League served up a weekend of action-packed drama.

Veteran winger turned full-back Ashley Young put in a shift worthy of World Cup selection, while wanted man Victor Wanyama showed his value for Spurs.

Here, Sportsmail’s RALPH ELLIS takes a look at what we can take away from the top-flight happenings, as well as delivering a few pointers and what went on in the Football League.

  1. Ashley Young now has to be considered a genuine rival at left back to the likes of Danny Rose and Ryan Bertrand for England’s World Cup squad.

The 32-year-old moved there as a makeshift option for Jose Mourinho earlier this season but has now added defensive steel to his undoubted quality going forward.

He dominated Liverpool danger man Mo Salah, winning nine out of nine duels plus four of six tackles and also made a couple of vital back-post clearances to play a key role in United’s 2-1 win.

  1. Gary Cahill isn’t going to give up his status as a first-team regular at Chelsea without a fight.

The England defender has been an unused sub for the last three games as Antonio Conte picked different options against Barcelona, Manchester United and Manchester City.

Back in the side against Crystal Palace, the 32-year-old rose to the challenge of giving Conte some thought before he names his side to go to the Nou Camp, winning 10 of 13 duels and making most clearances (9) in the 2-1 win.

  1. Victor Wanyama strengthened his hand in potential contract talks with Spurs with his performance in the 4-1 win at Bournemouth.

The Kenyan, used sparingly by Mauricio Pochettino since recovering in January from a knee injury, is being monitored by Manchester United and Liverpool where he could double his current £70,000-a-week wages.

He won the midfield battles to lay the base for Tottenham’s win, coming out on top in all six tackles and winning the ball back 13 times, more than any other Spurs player.

  1. Mauricio Pellegrino might have more chance of digging Southampton out of relegation trouble if he would sort himself out a settled side rather than continually changing both personnel and positions.

The Argentinian made three changes in his line-up at Newcastle from the side that drew with Stoke a week earlier.

You have to go back 27 games to September to find the last time the 46-year-old named an unchanged team.

  1. Arsene Wenger’s decision to rotate his squad ahead of Thursday’s Europa League second leg against Milan proved a bonus for young defender Rob Holding.

The 22-year-old former Bolton centre half came through a solid 90 minutes in the 3-0 win over Watford – his first Premier League game since getting dropped in January following the defeat at Bournemouth.

Holding, bought for a bargain £3m two summers ago, will benefit from the confidence boost.

  1. It’s hard to see how Burnley boss Sean Dyche can possibly axe goalkeeper Nick Pope when Tom Heaton completes his return to fitness in the next couple of weeks.

Dyche himself says Pope should be a candidate for England’s World Cup squad and the 25-year-old pressed his case further with four great saves that kept West Ham at bay in the 3-0 win at the London Stadium.

  1. Swansea’s Alfie Mawson has joined the centre backs jostling for a late chance in Gareth Southgate’s England plans before he names his squad on Thursday for the friendlies with Holland and Italy.

The 24-year-old has been a key figure in the run put together since Carlos Carvalhal has taken over both for his quality on the ball but also his determination to defend.

In the 0-0 draw at Huddersfield where Swansea played most of the game with 10 men he made four of the 11 blocks that spared keeper Lukasz Fabianski having to make more saves.

  1. It looks as if Leeds new manager Paul Heckingbottom has decided to give 21-year-old keeper Baily Peacock-Farrell the chance to prove he can be the club’s No 1.

The 6ft 4in academy product was man of the match for the second game in a row as Leeds dug out a 2-2 draw at Reading.

Error-prone German Felix Wiedwald was relegated to the bench while 34-year-old Andy Lonergan is being told he doesn’t need to rush back from injury.

  1. At 5ft 8in tall, Adam Armstrong doesn’t fit the Alan Shearer style mould of a traditional Newcastle centre-forward but there are high hopes the 21-year-old could be the next Geordie-born goal scoring star.

Currently out on loan at League One Blackburn he’s hit a purple patch with seven goals in as many games since manager Tony Mowbray put him into the starting line-up.

Armstrong, who had a similar glut with Coventry two seasons ago, should return to the Toon to fight for a first-team place next season.

  1. Brighton’s 21-year-old defender Ben Hall is another loanee who has been earning rave reviews since joining Notts County in the January window.

The Northern Irish defender, picked up from Motherwell two summers ago for a bargain £200,000, has strengthened Kevin Nolan’s promotion ambitions.

He was man of the match in the 2-1 win at Forest Green Rovers which kept County in the League Two top three.

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Summary of non-mainstream articles: 12/03/2018 14:48:05

| | ‘Too late,’ ‘I’m so bored’ … Southampton fans react to 22-year-old’s rallying cryFOOTBALLFANCAST |

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Loan Watch: A busy weekend for Saints’ loanees

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The Saints full back played the duration of the clash, with Aleksander Mitrovic opening the scoring with 20 minutes left to play, before Sean Maguire’s leveller for the hosts.

However, Mitrovic was the man to win it again for the Whites when he headed home Tom Cariney’s cross in stoppage time.

There was no such luck for Harrison Reed though, who played 79 minutes as Norwich City came out the wrong side of a seven-goal thriller at Hull City.

The visitors were 3-1 ahead after James Maddison’s 21-minute hat-trick, which included two penalties, responded to Jackson Irvine’s early goal.

Two penalties from Abel Hernandez levelled things before Harry Wilson’s late winner made it 4-3.

Elsewhere, Sam Gallagher played 90 minutes as Birmingham City fell to a 3-2 defeat at Cardiff City.

The Blues produced a spirited second-half fight back after three first-half goals from Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, Craig Bryson and Callum Paterson had put the hosts firmly in control.

Craig Gardner pulled one back from the penalty spot, before Maxime Colin’s finish in stoppage time.

In League Two, Marcus Barnes replaced Sam Surridge on 60 minutes, as Yeovil Town lost 2-0 to Newport County.

Young defender Ollie Cook also gained valuable experience in the National League, completing the full 90 minutes of Barrow’s 3-1 defeat to league leaders Macclesfield Town.

In Belgium, Jordy Clasie played 62 minutes of Club Brugge’s 1-0 away win over St Truiden before being replaced by Lior Rafaelov. Ruud Vormer netted the only goal.

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Summary of non-mainstream articles: 12/03/2018 15:48:20

| | No worries about Newcastle’s attitude as they keep heads while others are losing theirsTHESHIELDSGAZETTE |
| | Bookies slash odds on Mauricio Pellegrino being sackedBIRMINGHAMMAIL |

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Versatile Rowthorn puts team first

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With Frenchman Yan Valery sidelined by injury, Rowthorn switched roles in last week’s 1-1 draw with Brighton.

Radhi Jaïdi’s team return to Premier League 2 action tonight when they host their Norwich counterparts at Staplewood.

“I felt good and we didn’t concede too many goals, so I did alright!” said Rowthorn of his defensive audition at the Amex Stadium.

“I’ve played there a few times before in the last few years, so it is familiar to me.

“I’ll do a job wherever Radhi puts me. If he trusts me to play at right-back, I’ll do a job there.

“I’ll fill in there as long as I have to until Yan comes back, but the main thing is just putting in a good, solid performance for the team and getting three points to climb up the table.”

The young Saints are now four games unbeaten and would leapfrog the Canaries in seventh with another victory.

“We’re in a good run of form and we’ve got a good bond with the players off the pitch, so everyone is happy and we can’t wait for each game,” Rowthorn added.

“It’s always a good battle when we play against Norwich. They’re above us in the league, so we want to chase them down.

“Hopefully we can take all the good things that we’ve been doing in recent weeks into this game and get the three points.”

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Ticket Information: Saints vs Chelsea

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Saints face Chelsea in the Premier League on Saturday 14th April (12.30pm). Ticket information is as follows:

Become an Official Member and get priority access on tickets to each and every home match. Become a Junior Member and receive enhanced Welcome Packs with free gifts. Find out more about Official Membership here.

For certain fixtures, groups of 20 or more can make savings. Find out more and enquire here.

Making a weekend of it? Book your ticket and hotel break via Thomas Cook Sport. Find out more and book online at thomascooksport.com

Tickets are restricted to one per Supporter Number. Fans can purchase more than one ticket in each transaction by linking other eligible accounts with theirs using our friends and family function.

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Summary of non-mainstream articles: 12/03/2018 16:48:34

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| ‘Farewell my old friend’, ‘Talk is cheap’ – Southampton fans react as first-teamer issues rallying call | | Where …THETRANSFERTAVERN |
| | Striker lauds unity of Newcastle squad after Magpies breeze past SouthamptonNOTHINGBUTNEWCASTLE |
| | Who Is Who In The Blame List At St Mary’s - Southampton NewsTHEUGLYINSIDE |

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We’ll be live from Staplewood Campus, as #SaintsFCU23s take on #NCFC in #PL2 action:

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Here’s how #SaintsFCU23s line-up to face #NCFC in #PL2 tonight at Staplewood:

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@SouthamptonFC - Southampton FC

1: Showtime at Staplewood Campus, where #SaintsFCU23s are taking on #NCFC in the #PL2

:desktop_computer: WATCH LIVE:… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973273154079608832

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GOAL: #SaintsFCU23s 1-0 #NCFC U23s (@michaelobafemi_ 1)

What a start! #SaintsFC’s youngsters need just 13 seconds… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973274132916744196

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45: Great work from @JakeHesketh almost sets up a second for #SaintsFCU23s but #NCFC somehow divert the ball clear… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973285377304944642

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61: #SaintsFCU23s are denied a second from the penalty spot as @JakeHesketh’s effort is saved by #NCFC’s Aston Oxbo… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973293523058356225

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75: #SaintsFCU23s go close to doubling their advantage over #NCFC, @olomola spinning and firing just wide of the po… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973297043882983425

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QK Southampton launch search for new manager

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HAMPSHIRE Premier League outfit QK Southampton have launched the search for a new manager following Mark Sainsbury’s resignation.

Former Downton boss Nigel Green has taken over on a caretaker basis for the rest of the season, assisted by Dean Phillips.

Chairman Roy Kingdon commented: ‘’All of us at QK Southampton would like to thank Mark for his good work over the last four years and we wish him well for the future.

“I am pleased to have appointed Nigel Green as caretaker manager for the remainder of the season.

“We are keen to talk to any candidates keen on the permanent job as we aim for promotion next season.’’

Caretaker boss Green - also a former Whitchurch United and Romsey Town man - commented: ‘’ I am pleased to come in as caretaker boss to see out the season.

“This is a very good club with potential to progress.

I am looking forward to meeting the players and finishing the season strongly.”

QK are currently 12th in the table with games in hand over the majority of teams.

Anyone interested in the permanent position of first-team boss can call chairman Roy Kingdon on 07876 115096 or email club secretary Don Campbell at djcampbell1972@gmail.com

Last Thursday QK Reserves came out on top in the second semi-final of the New Forest Care HPL Combination Cup against Winchester Castle Reserves at AFC Stoneham.

Toby Rochford gave them a first-half lead, only for Ben Wakefield to level matters for Castle on 79 minutes.

The tie went to penalties and it was QK who held their nerve to win 3-2 and book a place in the final against Overton United Reserves.

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GOAL: #SaintsFCU23s 1-1 #NCFC U23s (Adam Phillips 78)

The visitors catch #SaintsFC cold as Phillips equalises wit… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/973298758715817984

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