I just prefer election results to unreliable polls, guv.
The polls are fucking crap right now for Labour. They were neck and neck or actually ahead in some polls before the coup started. Still, alienating the public by carrying on like the embodiment of everything the public hates about politicians is “Saving Labour”, innit?
One can only hope Corbyn’s rebuilt Labour can make up some of the difference if and when he wins.
The interesting graph is number 4 - the net satisfaction chart. If you aint above the line, you dont get elected.
Have you honestly thought about the prevailing circumstances of recent power shifts?
In both changes, Major to Blair and Brown to Cameron, we’ve seen a public increasingly disaffected with the incumbent government end up with a PM they didn’t want, preceded by years of squabbling on an issue that didn’t seem that important to other people.
Major survived his first election, but then people weren’t as hard up as they were under this crop of Conservatives.
Elections are won on the ground. The Tories are being investigated for the amount of money they spent on their marginal constituencies. Labour has got half a million volunteers for free, and when you’ve got that many people, from that many different walks of life, talking to people that have been fucked over by the government, anything can happen.
The balance of power lies in 150 seats.
Bullshit, it’s just a constant reharsh of the shite you spew about anyone who doesn’t share your Jezza worship.
On this thread you’ve constantly said how I must be a Blairite traitor to the cause because I don’t want Corbyn as leader. When I saw you have to win the mddle ground you dismiss them as “believe in nothing” and unimportant. You state there is no middle class as if that makes it true.
It is you who has created the socialist caricature of the Jezza dullard oblivious to reality and doesn’t like it when others point out the absurdity of it.
Originally posted by @Flahute
Bullshit, it’s just a constant reharsh of the shite you spew about anyone who doesn’t share your Jezza worship.
Check the thread, mate.
You’re the only one getting the strawman tag, and that’s because you keep doing it in your posts.
On this thread you’ve constantly said how I must be a Blairite traitor to the cause because I don’t want Corbyn as leader. When I saw you have to win the mddle ground you dismiss them as “believe in nothing” and unimportant. You state there is no middle class as if that makes it true.
Then please, point me to examples. My recollection of this thread is asking you if you had any dealbreakers, and responding to your previous refrain of having a closed mind.
I’m happy to be corrected. Show me where I’ve called you a Blairite traitor. If anyone is bullshitting here, it’s you.
It is you who has created the socialist caricature of the Jezza dullard oblivious to reality and doesn’t like it when others point out the absurdity of it.
Typical gutless bullshit response of a dullard who believes he’s never wrong and hasn’t the balls to say so.
You are and always have been a cunt & I really wonder why I even bother with responding.
Originally posted by @Flahute
Typical gutless bullshit response of a dullard who believes he’s never wrong and hasn’t the balls to say so.
You are and always have been a cunt & I really wonder why I even bother with responding.
I’m unmoved by this sparkling political analysis.
Originally posted by @pap
What is it with Owen Smith supporters looking terminally miserable? Have they just heard his real views on the NHS?
Owen Smith — The Labour Party’s very own David Brent.
My respect for Smith just went up a notch.
He’s just told BBC News that it would be wrong for the High Court to rule that Jeremy Corbyn should not be on the ballot.
and then he uncrossed his fingers
Why do i get emails about Owen Smith to my inbox but have just discovered emails from Corbyn go to junk email?(now changed).
Both sent from theteam@labour.org
Seems a bit odd.
Matt Wrack, Fire Brigades Union: “We welcome Owen Smith’s decision to speak out for working people, but this damascene conversion must be greeted with caution given that just one year ago he supported the public sector pay freeze, which is now affecting our firefighter members for the seventh consecutive year.
“Jeremy Corbyn has been supporting the trade union movement all his political life and has a well catalogued history of putting working people first. He has supported firefighters for decades, and he cares deeply about protecting the pay and conditions of all working people."
Oh dear.
Owen Smith wanted to be a slick version of Jeremy Corbyn – but he’s ended up as a dodgy sexist copy
Smith has been captured telling Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood that her ‘gender helps’ her get TV coverage. He labelled himself the ‘normal’ candidate with kids when standing against a woman who is openly gay. And yesterday he called for Labour to ‘smash Theresa May back on her heels’, while simultaneously accusing Jeremy Corbyn of being responsible for misogyny in the Labour Party
I saw that “smash her back in her heels” bit. He clearly isn’t encouraging people to punch her. It’s a turn of phrase. If Corbyn said it and it was used against him, Corbyn supporters would be saying it’s ridiculous. Which it is. I’m getting very bored of the Labour Party and people who support/destroy the party.
Ah, c’mon, Fatso. If it’s a one-off, fair enough. The boy has form, as the article expands on. This is quoted from a Telegraph article.
He wrote in an online article in 2010: “Surely, the Liberals will file for divorce as soon as the bruises start to show through the make-up?”
If you wanted to moan at anyone, you should probably look at the people that decided that this bloke was worth all the upheaval.
That’s not a quote that expresses a desire for violence against women. At worst it’s a poorly judged analogy. He was saying that the Tories were launching a campaign (of domestic violence) against public services and that their bed fellows, the liberals, would surely file for divorce as soon as the bruises showed.
Here’s the story from the time
I don’t believe he is advocating violence against women. I have two quotes which have been twisted to suit people’s agendas. The same thing is happening to Corbyn by those who want him out, which is why I’m sick of the Labour Party. They’re destroying the only genuine option other than the Tories in this country. Good intentions or not, the war that is raging between factions in the party will ultimately lead to good news for the Tories.
Statistically it isn’t representative:
UK Users of Twitter (15 million)
15-24 = 33%
25-34 = 20%
35-44 = 19%
45-54 = 16%
55+ = 11%
43% of users only read Twitter and haven’t posted in the last year, so these percentages can be reduced (http://www.thelasthurdle.co.uk/demographics-of-uk-social-media-users/):
15-24 = 14.2%
25-34 = 8.6%
35-44 = 8.2%
45-54 = 6.9%
55+ = 4.7%
If we assume that 30% of those 15-24 users can’t vote due to age (which is very conservative), then this is reduced:
18-24 = 9.9%
25-34 = 8.6%
35-44 = 8.2%
45-54 = 6.9%
55+ = 4.7%
So let’s now apply that 15 million to these users:
18-24 = 1.485m
25-34 = 1.29m
35-44 = 1.23m
45-54 = 1.04m
55+ = 0.70m
Now let’s apply voting from the 2015 election:
Turnout
18-24 = 43%
25-34 = 54%
35-44 = 64%
45-54 = 72%
55+ = 77%
So that reduces the number to:
18-24 = 638k
25-34 = 697k
35-44 = 787k
45-54 = 749k
55+ = 529k
Or as a percentage of the vote:
18-24 = 18.8%
25-34 = 20.5%
35-44 = 23.1%
45-54 = 22.0%
55+ = 15.6%
So this shows the MAXIMUM number of people that could post about politics and are likely to vote, which is approximately 20% of UK Twitter users. Adding to this that I would say the VAST majority of people are not interested, you’re looking at a vastly reduced set of numbers. Oh yes, and that is if you follow every single one of these users, not a tiny subset of left wingers.
But, back to my main point, if we then look at the difference between these demographics, and the actual voting demographic we see the following:
Population
18-24 = 5.9m
25-34 = 8.4m
35-44 = 8.8m
45-54 = 8.7m
55+ = 17.8m
The representative demographic should be (population x voter turnout):
18-24 = 2.54m
25-34 = 4.54m
35-44 = 5.63m
45-54 = 6.26m
55+ = 13.71m
Or as a %age:
18-24 = 8.01%
25-34 = 14.32%
35-44 = 17.76%
45-54 = 19.75%
55+ = 43.25%
The differences there are massive Pap. Twitter is not a representative demographic of the voting population.
I agree. At worst it shows that Smith isn’t great at thinking on his feet, or possibly that his speech writers are shite. I don’t think either quote represents a deep-seated hatred of women or an approval of domestic violence… But, as the famous old saying goes, feel free to punch my Mrs in the vag if I’m mistaken.
I think he was just clumsy with words…but had it been Corbyn his opponents would have been all over it, so Smith has to take that one on the chin.
Quite correct. They’ve been trying to nail Corbyn for stuff he hasn’t said or done.
He’s going to be on the ballot though. High Court just ruled in his favour.
